“The ‘Freedom Plan’ was halted after just one day of implementation—what is Trump concerned about?”

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The meticulously planned escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz by the U.S. government was suspended less than 24 hours after its launch, revealing the profound dilemma Trump currently faces: he wants to use military pressure to force Iran to comply, but is unwilling to ignite a new round of full-scale conflict while there is still an opportunity for negotiation.

According to CCTV News, on May 3 local time, the U.S. Central Command issued a statement saying its forces would begin supporting "Project Freedom" on May 4, aiming to restore freedom of commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Media reports on Wednesday stated that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, and other senior officials intensively released details of "Project Freedom" on Monday and Tuesday, claiming they would provide a "powerful red, white, and blue dome" for commercial vessels.

However, later that same day, Trump announced a "temporary pause" of the operation, citing requests from mediators such as Pakistan, to leave space for negotiations. This abrupt change caught the market and allies off guard.

On the first day of the operation, Iran deployed cruise missiles, drones, and armed speedboats to launch multiple attacks on passing ships, and also hit an oil terminal in Fujairah, UAE. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, only 6 ships successfully crossed the strait on Monday, shrinking further to 1 ship on Tuesday, far below the pre-war daily average of about 130 ships. This result exposed the limitations of military escorts and heightened market concerns over the prospects for energy trade.

From Tough Action to Emergency Suspension: The Logic Behind the Decision

Reports state that Trump is deeply dissatisfied with the deadlock in Iran negotiations, where there is "no war, no agreement." A senior U.S. official told Axios: "The President wants action; he doesn't want to stand still. He wants to apply pressure. He wants an agreement."

Last Thursday night, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, submitted a more aggressive plan to Trump, which involved directly dispatching Navy vessels to forcibly open the strait, and authorizing strikes against Iranian missile sites and speedboats in case of retaliation. Trump ultimately chose a relatively restrained version—ships would not directly escort, but "wait nearby," offering guidance to commercial vessels and preparing to counter Iranian attacks.

However, even this more conservative plan triggered fierce exchanges on its first day. According to

Bloomberg, during the U.S. Navy's assistance to two ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz, they successfully repelled multiple attacks by Iranian drones, missiles, and speedboats. A source close to the President told Axios, this action is essentially "the beginning of a process that could lead to direct conflict with Iran," but the escalation in violence on day one clearly exceeded Trump's tolerance threshold.

The Negotiation Window Remains Open, but Differences Are Still Huge

According to Xinhua, on the evening of May 5 Eastern Time, President Trump posted on social media, saying the "Project Freedom" to "unblock" ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term.

Another important reason for Trump suspending the operation, is that diplomatic negotiations have not completely collapsed. Reports state that Trump's envoy Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are still exchanging draft texts with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Trump himself posted on social media that the U.S. and Iran have made "great progress" towards reaching a "comprehensive final agreement," and stressed that escort suspension was at the request of Pakistan and other mediator countries. However, he also emphasized that the blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports will "remain fully in effect."

However, according to a senior U.S. official, the reality is much more complicated than Trump's statements: "Negotiations are underway, there are proposals, but we don't like theirs and they don't like ours. We are not even sure of (Iran's Supreme Leader)'s status, since they relay messages manually into caves or wherever he's hiding, which slows the whole process." Witkoff is inclined to remain optimistic about reaching an agreement, but several U.S. officials are much more pessimistic.

Escort Effectiveness Questioned, Market Confidence Difficult to Rebuild

Even if "Project Freedom" were not suspended, its actual effect has already come under serious doubts. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, only 6 ships passed the strait on the first day, and only 1 on the second.

Naveen Das, senior analyst at commodity and shipping data company Kpler, pointed out that this new initiative "has not substantively changed anything," and the shipping industry still lacks the willingness to take the risks of returning to the area.

He emphasized that, besides the physical risk of crew casualties and ship damage, the "first movers" would also face huge reputational risks if attacked. Notably, some vessels linked to Iran are still transiting—the data show that the U.S.-sanctioned tanker Nooh Gas carrying 129,000 barrels of LNG passed through the strait on Monday.

Jakob Larsen, Chief Security Officer of BIMCO, the world's largest shipping trade organization, said in a statement before Trump announced the suspension: "Given the hostile actions in the past 24 hours, the overall security situation has clearly tightened, the threat of ships being attacked has risen, and the situation seems to be developing along an escalation path." Bloomberg economic research analyst Becca Wasser also pointed out that "Project Freedom" has "major escalation risks, as Monday's fighting has fully demonstrated."

Dilemma: How to Balance Pressure and Negotiation

The hasty suspension of "Project Freedom" exposes Trump's current strategic dilemma.

On the one hand, commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has shrunk dramatically since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli-Iran war on February 28 this year. About one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply used to pass through this route, and energy prices continue to be under pressure. On the other hand, Trump faces huge pressure to end this increasingly unpopular war, and any military action that could trigger a full-scale conflict runs counter to his negotiation goals.

According to a senior U.S. official’s assessment, the current situation has only two paths: "Either we are seeing a real outline for a possible agreement emerge, or he will launch a fierce bombing campaign against Iran." Between these two extremes, Trump is trying to maintain pressure through military posture while leaving room for diplomatic negotiations—the one-day turnaround on "Project Freedom" is the latest illustration of this high-risk balancing act.

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