The golden era of submarine cables: "Single 30" leads the development of the deep and distant seas, China's rise as a "tripod of three legs."

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Offshore wind power has officially entered a new era, shifting from "nearshore demonstration" to "large-scale deep and far sea". According to the latest industry monitoring data from the first quarter of 2026, China's cumulative grid-connected offshore wind power capacity has surpassed the 50GW milestone, while global installed capacity is accelerating toward 150GW.

If offshore wind power is the jewel in the crown of clean energy, then submarine cables are the "nervous system" connecting this jewel to modern civilization. With the full implementation of the "Single 30" policy (offshore distance >30km or water depth >30m), the submarine cable industry is experiencing a technological sovereignty shift from "simple AC" to "UHV DC", from "static laying" to "dynamic entanglement".

I. What happened? Strategic Value Leap

If offshore wind power is the jewel in the crown of clean energy, then submarine cables are the "nervous system" connecting this jewel to modern civilization. With the full implementation of the “Single 30” policy (offshore distance >30km or water depth >30m), the submarine cable industry is experiencing a technological sovereignty shift from “simple AC” to “UHV DC”, and from “static laying” to “dynamic entanglement”.

2026 is a critical turning year for the submarine cable industry. From the industry's fundamentals, by the end of 2025, China's cumulative grid-connected offshore wind power has exceeded 47 million kW, ranking first globally for five consecutive years. Global offshore wind installed capacity reached 89.2GW in 2025, with China contributing over half of the global new installed capacity with 6GW. From the supply-demand structure, submarine cable bidding volume in 2026 is expected to be no less than 12GW, up nearly 20% from 2025. There are 87 key offshore wind projects across 9 coastal provinces, with a total installed capacity of about 46.7GW. The global subsea power cable market is expected to grow continuously from about $17.6-58.1 billion in 2025 (depending on statistics) to about $30-58 billion by the mid-2030s.

Subsea cables are one of the core components of offshore wind power projects, with the key function of safely and efficiently transmitting electricity generated by offshore wind turbines to the onshore grid. Their cost accounts for 8%-15% of total investment in offshore wind projects, but they are the decisive link that determines whether the entire wind power project can “connect, transmit, and remain stable”.

Submarine cable products can be roughly divided into three categories: array cables connect wind turbines to offshore substations, mainly using 35kV or 66kV voltage levels; export cables connect offshore substations to onshore control centers, mainly using 220kV voltage, with deep and far sea projects gradually upgrading to 500kV DC; dynamic cables serve floating wind power, need to withstand dynamic loads from waves and currents, and pose the highest technical barriers. Different types of submarine cables vary significantly in technical difficulty, value, and gross margin: cables above 220kV can have gross margins over 40%, far higher than ordinary land cables and low-voltage marine cables.

Looking ahead, the National Energy Administration has started drafting the "15th Five-Year" renewable energy development plan. The plan proposes reaching a cumulative grid-connected offshore wind capacity of 100 million kW by 2030 (with 53GW of new installations during the “15th Five-Year” period). China Energy Construction Investment Group's chief economist further predicts that annual new installed capacity may exceed 20GW throughout the “15th Five-Year” period.

The development logic for offshore wind is being reconstructed: nearshore resources are increasingly saturated, coupled with ecological protection red lines and channel conflicts, forcing projects into deeper waters. As the distance increases, submarine cables are not only “longer”, but also change physical properties. To reduce energy loss during long-distance transmission, voltage levels must be upgraded from 35kV/66kV to 220kV, 500kV, or even higher, which causes unit cost per kilometer to increase exponentially.

When transmission distance exceeds 70–100 km, the capacitive effect of AC power makes reactive losses unacceptable. At this point, adopting flexible DC (VSC-HVDC) technology becomes the only solution. This means the industry chain will evolve from simple cable manufacturing to integrated full-system solutions, combining “flexible DC submarine cables + converter platforms”.

It can be said that China's offshore wind power is entering a trillion-yuan track led by “Single 30”.

II. Why is it important? Policy-driven momentum worth attention

To understand the future of the submarine cable industry, one must understand the fundamental transformation in policy logic.

The "Double 10" policy released in 2011 required that offshore wind farms should, in principle, be located at least 10 km from the shore and in waters deeper than 10 meters. With nearshore resources increasingly saturated and escalating conflicts over sea usage, on December 30, 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially issued "Notice on Further Strengthening Offshore Wind Power Project Sea Management", explicitly requiring new offshore wind projects to be located more than 30 km from the shore or in waters deeper than 30 meters.

The "Single 30" policy has extremely far-reaching industry significance: First, deep and far sea development extends sea usage mileage greatly—at an offshore distance of 50km, cable length is 5 times more than at 10km, directly driving a significant increase in cable demand; second, deep and far sea requires a comprehensive technical upgrade—voltage levels moving from 220kV to 500kV or higher, some projects needing flexible DC transmission technology; third, access barriers for deep and far sea projects rise significantly, enterprises lacking deep-water construction and high-end cable capacity are naturally eliminated.

Research and Markets predicts the offshore wind subsea cable market will grow at a CAGR of 19.05%, from $3.554 billion in 2025 to $10.118 billion in 2031. This growth rate far outpaces the overall subsea cable market, reflecting offshore wind as the core engine driving the cable industry.

In terms of China's market scale, research shows China's subsea cable market exceeded 30 billion yuan in 2025. As deep and far sea projects drive the value of submarine cables per GW to double to 2-4 billion yuan, China’s cable market growth prospects are vast.

From bidding data, industry prosperity has clearly rebounded. Cable bidding volume in 2026 is expected to be no less than 12GW, up nearly 20% from 2025. The rhythm of industry bidding has accelerated since Q4 2025, and the overall start is favorable. Notably, since 2026, large submarine cable orders have been intensively awarded: Dongfang Cable won the State Power Investment Yangjiang Sanshan Island Offshore Wind Power Project (bid about 207 million yuan), Hengtong High Voltage won Datang Hainan Danzhou 1200MW offshore wind project (bid about 267 million yuan), and Shenergy Hainan CZ2 Offshore Wind Phase II won 1.782 billion yuan. This concentration of orders validates strong downstream demand recovery.

Overseas markets also provide significant incremental demand. The EU + UK’s targeted offshore wind installed capacity for 2030 is 161GW, European domestic supply chain increase is limited, likely releasing demand for external orders. It is expected that China's offshore wind installations outside the mainland will reach 10.3GW in 2026, more than doubling year-on-year, with Europe being the main contributor (about 7.5GW) and Asia-Pacific adding about 2.7GW. Japan and South Korea are also accelerating offshore wind development, with bidding expected in 2025.

Chinese submarine cable enterprises, relying on technological and cost advantages, are accelerating their international expansion. Hengtong Optic-Electric is an industry leader in trans-oceanic submarine optical cable technology, ranking as the top supplier for many European orders; Zhongtian Technology is the only globally mass producer of deep-dynamic cables, participating in Brazil/Europe wind power projects.

III. What to focus on next? Tight supply-demand balance & value enhancement

The advance of deep and far sea development is reshaping the supply-demand balance for cables:

Deep and far sea projects push submarine cable value per GW to double. As offshore distance extends from 10–20 km to 50–100 km, cable usage increases significantly. Calculations show deep and far sea projects raise cable value per GW to 2–4 billion yuan, more than double nearshore projects.

Product structure upgrade drives value enhancement. Deep and far sea projects require higher-voltage cables—from 220kV AC to 500kV DC and even higher, while dynamic cable demand grows rapidly with floating wind power, expected to be scaled up by 2026. Products with higher technical difficulty typically yield higher gross margins.

Supply-demand gaps are especially notable in deep and far sea markets. Enterprises with ultra-high voltage DC cable and dynamic cable manufacturing capabilities are limited, and as deep and far sea projects launch on a large scale, supply gaps for high-end cables are expected to widen further.

A striking example: the global submarine cable market was long dominated by three European giants (Prysmian, Nexans, NKT). However, with the leapfrog growth of China's supply chain in 2024-2025, Chinese firms like Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric have achieved complete independence in the 220kV and 500kV high-end markets, and demonstrate remarkable engineering competitiveness in overseas projects (e.g., Europe, Southeast Asia). According to the 2025 "Global Top 10 Competitive Submarine Cable Enterprises" ranking, Prysmian leads with 1000 points, Hengtong Optic-Electric is in the top three with 972 points, and Zhongtian Technology is fourth with 960 points. The status of Chinese enterprises in the global cable market is rising quickly.

The high barriers in the cable industry are mainly reflected in three areas:

Manufacturing process barriers: Submarine cable manufacturing requires super-high voltage vertical (VCV) production lines, with only a few companies worldwide possessing them. Far East Cable has the world's only “One Tower 6 Lines + 8 Lines” VCV vertical production line.

Deep water construction and cable laying barriers: Laying submarine cables requires dedicated cable-laying ships and deep water construction abilities; fleet size and technical capability are key barriers.

Certification barriers: Products must pass type tests and pre-certification tests from international leading agencies, with certification cycles as long as 2–3 years. Deep and far sea projects have higher requirements and more challenging certification.

With the strengthening trend of deep and far sea driven by the “Single 30” policy, cables are upgrading to longer distances, higher voltages, and flexible DC, further raising industry barriers. The leading companies’ first-mover advantages are being continually amplified.

The cable industry is experiencing a paradigm leap from "nearshore supporting facilities" to "deep and far sea strategic infrastructure". We divide this leap into four stages:

Stage 1 (2020–2021): Rush installation-driven period. The decline of national subsidies triggered “rush installations”, concentrated release of cable demand, and rapid industry expansion.

Stage 2 (2022–2024): Adjustment and standardization period. After subsidy decline, sea-use conflicts became prominent, regulation tightened, cable installed capacity growth came under pressure. Industry entered a dormant stage, with faster elimination of weaker players.

Stage 3 (2025–2027): Deep and far sea acceleration period. The "Single 30" policy clarified industry direction, large-scale launch of deep and far sea projects, cables upgraded to longer distances and higher voltages, and industry barriers remain elevated. The current stage is the core acceleration period. In 2026, cable bidding volume is expected at no less than 12GW, with a significant rebound in industry prosperity.

Stage 4 (Post-2028): Globalization and floating wind maturity period. Floating wind enters commercialization, dynamic cable demand explodes, Chinese cable companies accelerate overseas participation in global competition. Global offshore wind installed capacity will exceed 410GW over the next decade.

Core conclusions—

Conclusion 1: “Single 30” policy is the fundamental driving force of the industry, deep and far sea development doubles the cable value. The transition from “Double 10” to “Single 30” marks a high-quality development path for Chinese offshore wind, shifting from nearshore “resource competition” to deep sea “efficiency improvement”. Deep and far sea projects lead cable per GW value from 1–2 billion yuan to 2–4 billion yuan, with simultaneous increases in technical difficulty and gross margin.

Conclusion 2: The cable industry presents a "three giants" competitive pattern, barriers remain high, and leading companies’ advantages stand out further. Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Dongfang Cable have built high competitive barriers in technology, capacity, and customer resources. Under the deep and far sea trend, shares of ultra-high voltage DC cables, dynamic cables, and other high-tech products will concentrate further at the top. In the 2025 global top 10 competitive submarine cable firms, Hengtong and Zhongtian rank 3rd and 4th, with Chinese firms’ global competitiveness continually rising.

Conclusion 3: 2026 is a critical turning year for the cable industry—bidding volume expected to grow 20%, dense large orders, accelerated deep and far sea project rollout. Dongfang Cable and Hengtong High Voltage consecutively won major offshore wind power orders in early 2026, validating strong downstream demand recovery. 87 key offshore wind projects in 9 coastal provinces, totaling 46.7GW installed capacity, solidly secure cable demand for the next 3–5 years.

Conclusion 4: Overseas expansion + floating wind power + DC cables are three major long-term growth drivers. Overseas offshore wind market demand is robust (EU + UK 2030 target 161GW, European domestic supply chain limited, strong demand for external orders); floating wind power enters commercialization after 2028, dynamic cable demand will explode; ultra-high voltage DC cable technical barriers and value are high, serving as the core driver of long-term growth for leading cable companies.

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