The harder Trump strikes, the tougher Iran becomes: Hormuz is pushed to the center of the negotiating table!

Not only did the U.S. assassination operations fail to soften Iran, they have instead produced a tougher opponent—the control of the Strait of Hormuz has now been pushed to the center of the negotiating table.

According to the Washington Post report on April 3, a series of assassination operations by the U.S. and Israel targeting Iran’s top officials, including the Supreme Leader Khamenei and other key figures, have resulted in their deaths. However, these actions did not bring about the leadership Trump had hoped for. Multiple regional officials and Western officials stated that the current Iranian regime is actually more hardline, making a deal between the U.S. and Iran more distant.

Iran has publicly raised ceasefire conditions including: war reparations and formal control over the Strait of Hormuz—demanding the right to collect transit fees from passing vessels.

A European official involved in diplomatic mediation remarked: "They have already demonstrated to Gulf countries how vulnerable they are, and how fragile the global economy is. So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz has never appeared in any negotiations, but now it's right in the middle of the table."

According to CCTV News on March 31, Iran's Parliament National Security Committee has passed a bill to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The bill specifies that fees will be charged in Iranian rials, with specific financial arrangements and payment system details yet to be determined.

Trump: No deal in two or three weeks, we’ll target power plants

Faced with the deadlock, according to Xinhua News Agency, Trump declared on April 2 in his latest nationwide televised address that the U.S. had achieved an “overwhelming victory” in the Iran conflict, and would carry out extremely fierce attacks in the next two to three weeks.

"If no deal is reached during this period, we have already targeted key objectives," Trump said, "If there is no agreement, we will strike every power plant extremely hard, most likely simultaneously." He also threatened to strike Iran’s oil infrastructure.

However, several regional officials said that even if Israel continues to carry out assassination operations against Iranian leaders, hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations remain slim in the coming weeks.

The logic of the Trump administration is: ongoing assassinations can force Iran to compromise. A former Trump administration official who served during the early phase of the conflict told the Washington Post: "If the Iranians are not flexible enough, you can keep killing until you find someone willing to negotiate." "When you apply more pressure, Iranians seem more likely to respond."

This former official admitted that assassinations might eventually produce someone willing to engage with Trump, but it is only a “glimmer of hope.” He believes this strategy can at least create suspicion and infighting among Iran’s top officials, thereby weakening the regime. "This is actually killing two birds with one stone—either find someone willing to negotiate, or create more turmoil, cause internal splits, and further weaken the regime."

But Iran strongly refutes this. An Iranian diplomat said this approach shows a profound misunderstanding of Iranian culture and history—in Iran, martyrdom is revered.

Iran becomes tougher the more it fights

Suzanne Maloney, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and former U.S. State Department senior Iran official, pointed out, "(Iran) is a system with an extremely deep talent pool. It is not a personal autocracy relying on a handful of key advisors. This country has spent 47 years ensuring it cannot be overthrown by foreign adversaries or its own people."

Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and Iran analyst, also noted that Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, IRGC new commander Ahmad Vahidi, and Supreme Leader’s military adviser Mohsen Rezaei—all come from the Iran-Iraq War era of the 1980s.

"They all rose from the bottom together when they were young," Vatanka said, "Having spent decades in this system, I don’t believe these people want to make any deals with Trump. They will double down, believing in their own slogans. They are all part of the system, and while there may be differences, survival is the common interest at this moment."

Notably, Iran has not collapsed despite hits to its leadership. Reports say Iran has recently continued revenge attacks and struck high-value targets, including key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Israeli industrial and energy facilities, and U.S. military installations—including a direct hit on an advanced U.S. reconnaissance aircraft.

According to CCTV News, an F-15E fighter jet was shot down inside Iran, and an A-10 attack aircraft crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first known case of a U.S. warplane crashing inside Iran since the military operation launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28.

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