The Hormuz crisis unexpectedly "saved" the Suez Canal: July revenue surged 42%, hitting a two-and-a-half-year high.

The Hormuz crisis unexpectedly "saved" the Suez Canal: July revenue surged 42%, hitting a two-and-a-half-year high.

The ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East conflict are reshaping the global shipping landscape, with the Suez Canal emerging as one of the beneficiaries.

According to Bloomberg, on September 8, data from Egypt's National Bureau of Statistics (CAPMAS) showed that Suez Canal revenue reached $505 million in July, a 42% year-on-year increase, marking the highest monthly level since December 2023; a total of 1,340 ships passed through the canal that month, a 27% year-on-year increase, further increasing from 1,208 in June.

Behind the rebound in traffic is the accelerated adjustment of Middle Eastern energy transportation and global shipping routes. Following the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, some oil exports from Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries have shifted to the Red Sea, creating increased transit demand for the Suez Canal. Simultaneously, as some European shipping companies resume Red Sea services, some vessels that previously detoured around the Cape of Good Hope are beginning to reassess the Suez route.

Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie stated last week that full-year revenue for 2026 is expected to reach $5.8 billion to $6 billion, a significant increase from $4.1 billion in 2025. Mohamed Abu Basha, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at EFG Hermes, also anticipates that the Suez Canal's recovery momentum will continue in the coming months as Asian oil export routes are readjusted and some shipping companies resume Red Sea services.

Tanker traffic has rebounded, making energy transportation a key support.

The recovery of the Suez Canal is first reflected in oil tanker transportation.

CAPMAS data shows that 526 oil tankers passed through the Suez Canal in July, up from 485 in June. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern oil-producing countries needed to adjust their export routes, with some crude oil shipments diverting to the Red Sea and then through the Suez Canal to reach European markets.

This change is redistributing regional shipping traffic. At the same time, some European shipping companies have begun resuming Red Sea routes, leading to a return of many vessels that previously circumvented the Cape of Good Hope. These two factors combined are creating additional transit demand for the Suez Canal.

Revenue hit a new high for the period, but is still far from pre-war levels.

However, the recovery of the Suez Canal is still in its early stages.

In 2023, the Suez Canal's annual revenue reached a record $10.2 billion; in April of that year, the number of ships passing through in a single month reached approximately 2,300. In comparison, the 1,340 ships that passed through in July of this year were less than 60% of that peak.

The decline in Suez Canal operations began in early 2024. As shipping risks in the Red Sea increased, many vessels opted to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to a significant drop in canal transit volume and revenue. Subsequently, related routes remained at low levels for an extended period, only showing a relatively significant recovery this year.

Therefore, even if revenue reaches $5.8 billion to $6 billion this year, it will only be about 60% of the historical peak in 2023. The Suez Canal is experiencing a phase of recovery, but there is still a significant gap between its current state and its full return to pre-crisis levels.

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