The House is about to vote, and the U.S. government begins a "long reboot."

According to media reports, the US House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on a spending bill on Wednesday evening local time, ending the record-long government shutdown.

The shutdown, which began on October 1, has lasted for 43 days, forcing hundreds of thousands of federal employees into unpaid leave or work. There have been flight delays, disruption to the release of key economic data, threats to food assistance for millions of families, and closures of national parks and museums. House Speaker Mike Johnson is optimistic about passing the bill, and the House Freedom Caucus has expressed its support.

Senate Democrats had previously insisted that any agreement to reopen the government must include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, but eight Democratic caucus members ultimately defected, supporting the Republican proposal to first reopen the government and then vote on the health care subsidies in mid-December. The House Democratic leadership has urged members to oppose the bill, saying it lacks health care provisions.

After the shutdown ends, the government will face a lengthy restart process. Returning to normal operations could take days or even more than a week, payroll systems need update to pay weeks of back wages, and backlogs of appropriations, loan applications, and customer calls must be cleared. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that flight restrictions would begin to be lifted within a week after the restart, just in time for the Thanksgiving travel peak. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the six-week shutdown will reduce fourth-quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in about $11 billion in net losses.

Last-Minute Controversy Fails to Halt Progress

A provision in the bill allowing senators to claim $500,000 if federal investigators collect their phone records without their knowledge sparked bipartisan backlash before the vote. The provision is believed to be designed for eight senators whose records were obtained in former Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election.

Several Republican lawmakers said they did not want to delay the government restart by opposing the provision and plan to revoke it later through separate legislation. Johnson said Wednesday that Republicans would introduce an independent bill to repeal the provision next week.

The House Freedom Caucus praised the spending package in a memo as a "comprehensive victory for HFC, conservative leadership, and messaging." Republican Representative Victoria Spartz, who previously opposed an interim funding bill in September, said she would vote for this bill. With the Republicans holding a slim majority in the House, most Democrats are expected to oppose the bill, though potential defectors include Maine Representative Jared Golden and Texas Representative Henry Cuellar.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats would continue pushing for legislation to extend health care subsidies, including a new bill to extend subsidies for three years. He stated at a Wednesday press conference that Democrats would pressure Republicans to support the proposal. “This fight is not over,” he said.

Restart May Take Days or Even Weeks

Government restart can only officially begin after the appropriations bill passes Congress and is signed by President Trump. The House is expected to pass the Senate-approved legislation as soon as Wednesday night, but many agencies may not resume operations until Friday or even next Monday, depending on legislative progress.

Federal officials warn that some restrictions related to the shutdown will persist. Transportation Secretary Duffy said Wednesday that flight restrictions would begin to lift within a week after government restart, just in time for Thanksgiving travel. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said Wednesday that Thanksgiving holiday travel should be "fine."

While federal employees will receive back pay, agencies warn that recalculating pay may take time. A 2019 law requires agencies to pay all wages as soon as possible after an appropriations interruption ends. But after the 2019 shutdown, air traffic controllers waited about two to two and a half months for full compensation, said National Air Traffic Controllers Association President Nick Daniels.

Duffy pledged this time the process would be quicker. He said controllers would receive 70% of back pay within 24 to 48 hours after restart, with the remainder paid about a week later.

Economic Impact Not Completely Recoverable

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said this is more of a stimulus than a shock to the economy, but the stimulus is getting bigger and bigger. A shutdown lasting more than a few weeks leaves a lasting mark, and we are just beginning to see that.

A report released by the Congressional Budget Office last month showed that the six-week shutdown would reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. The government restart will reverse most of the impact as back pay is distributed to employees, but will still result in a net GDP loss of about $11 billion. Some canceled travel plans will not be rescheduled, and some federal contractors will not be able to recoup all their losses.

The shutdown does not save the government money. A bipartisan Senate report from 2019 found the shutdown caused over $300 million in extra administration, lost revenue, and late fees. Additionally, while the White House laid off thousands of employees during the shutdown, the funding legislation requires them to be rehired. Whether federal employees worked or not, they will receive back pay.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (food stamps) will resume its normal payment cycle after weeks of uncertainty, following delayed and rationed benefits by the states. But that won't happen immediately: states say it could take up to a week to update beneficiary records and reload debit cards. As there are only two main card vendors, bottlenecks could occur when all states seek to replenish benefits at the same time.

The shutdown also led to canceled or delayed economic data releases. More importantly, the lack of new statistics on prices and employment leaves policymakers with a forecasting data gap that may distort predictions for months. Analysts estimate that each week of shutdown causes the economy a loss of $10 to $15 billion. Although back pay and delayed federal spending can reverse the loss, economists say some costs of this record-long shutdown will never be recovered.

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