The incremental power demand of U.S. data centers: "off-grid solutions" address "one-fourth to one-third" of the demand, among which fuel cells meet "25-50%".

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The exponential development of AI is turning data centers into power-hungry "behemoths," while aging grid infrastructure is already overwhelmed.

The lag in traditional power grids has also opened a huge market space for "behind-the-meter" (BTM) power solutions. According to Trading Desk reports, Goldman Sachs' latest research predicts that by 2030, "behind-the-meter" solutions could meet one-quarter to one-third of incremental data center power demand, corresponding to 20-25 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity.

Among these, fuel cell technology, with its unique advantages, is expected to occupy 25% to 50% of the "behind-the-meter" solutions market, which is equivalent to 8-20 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity.

AI's "Power Hog" and the Grid's "Midlife Crisis"

According to Goldman Sachs' report, global data center power demand, driven by both AI and non-AI applications, is reshaping the power market. Goldman Sachs' US utilities team forecasts that by 2030, US data centers alone will require an additional 82 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity to meet demand.

However, the reality is harsh. The pace of grid infrastructure construction lags far behind the growth in demand. Data cited in the report show that the construction of new high-voltage transmission lines in the US has plummeted from an average of 1,700 miles per year between 2010-2014 to just 350 miles per year between 2020-2023.

Even more severe, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory data, the median time from filing an interconnection application to full commercial operation for a project is now nearly 5 years.

This "distant water can't quench present thirst" scenario is forcing data center operators to shift their attention away from the grid and turn to on-site power generation solutions that can be deployed quickly.

"Behind-the-Meter" Power Supply: a 25GW Emerging Market

Faced with the grid’s incapacity, "behind-the-meter" (BTM) solutions have emerged. BTM refers to direct power generation and consumption on the user side, bypassing the public grid. The report clearly states that BTM solutions provide an important alternative for data centers to operate reliably and continuously independent of grid reliability issues.

The report makes a key quantitative forecast: between 2024 and 2030, the incremental power demand for data centers will total about 730 terawatt-hours (TWh). Goldman estimates that one-quarter to one-third of this will be met by BTM solutions, which means that up to 20-25 gigawatts (GW) of BTM power generation will be deployed in the next five years.

"By 2030, 'behind-the-meter' solutions can meet about one-quarter to one-third of the incremental power demand of data centers, which is 20-25 gigawatts (GW)."

In this emerging market, gas turbines and fuel cells are regarded as the two most promising technologies because they both provide grid-independent, stable, and dispatchable power.

The 8-20GW Golden Track for Fuel Cells

Among BTM solutions, fuel cells—especially solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC)—offer structural advantages over traditional gas turbines in delivery time, noise, emissions, and flexibility.

Given the above advantages, Goldman is extremely optimistic about the application prospects of fuel cells in the data center market. The core forecast in the report is that by 2030, fuel cells will account for 25% to 50% of the BTM solutions market, which is equivalent to 8-20 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity.

In particular, solid oxide fuel cells, thanks to their high efficiency, fuel flexibility, and commercial readiness, are considered the most suitable technical route for data center applications.

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