The industry enters the "early commercialisation" stage! Morgan Stanley significantly raises its shipment forecast for Chinese humanoid robots.

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China's humanoid robot industry is accelerating from the demonstration stage into early commercialization. Morgan Stanley has substantially raised its shipment forecasts and increased the target price of key companies by more than 70%.

According to Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley's latest research report stated, the bank has raised its estimate for China's humanoid robot shipments in 2026 from 28,000 units to 50,000 units, and expects shipments to reach 446,000 units by 2030, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 106% from 2025 to 2030.

Morgan Stanley points out that faster commercial validation, reinforced policy support, and positive supply chain feedback are the three core drivers for the upward revision of these forecasts.

In terms of market size, Morgan Stanley expects China’s humanoid robot market to reach $2 billion by 2026 and expand to $15 billion by 2030.

Commercialization Accelerates, Industry Reaches a Critical Turning Point

Morgan Stanley's report clearly states that China's humanoid robot industry has entered the "early commercialization" stage, with the industry's focus shifting from technology demonstrations to generating real commercial value.

In the first half of 2026, several landmark commercial orders were finalized. State Grid issued procurement orders totaling RMB 6.8 billion (approx. $940 million), including 500 humanoid robots, 3,000 dual-arm robots, and 5,000 quadruped robots. SF Express and China Post have begun deploying Robotera’s humanoid robots at logistics centers. Meanwhile, application cases for humanoid robots in factory production lines, sorting lines, and commercial services continue to expand, and deployments in unmanned retail stores and interactive commercial services are picking up pace.

Morgan Stanley believes that since commercial validation typically takes several months, projects launched for testing in the first half of 2026 are expected to gradually transition into large-scale procurement starting in the second half of the year.

Supply Chain Rapidly Expands Production, Shipments and Revenue Rise Quickly

Morgan Stanley's field research into supply chain companies shows an overall positive trend, with several key component companies significantly expanding their capacities.

In the reducer field, Green Harmonic’s harmonic reducer monthly capacity has increased from 50,000 units in Q1 2026 to about 70,000 units now, with plans to further expand to 100,000–120,000 units by year-end.

The bank believes Green Harmonic occupies a core position in the humanoid robot value chain, having supplied major domestic robot manufacturers such as Unitree and Galbot, maintaining a leading domestic market share.

Morgan Stanley assumes Green Harmonic’s harmonic reducer market share for humanoid robots will be 40% globally in 2026 and 25% in the long term, with related revenues contributing 35% and 50% to 2026 and 2027 annual revenues, respectively.

In the ball screws segment, Hengli Hydraulics’ Mexican plant aims to support around 100,000 robots’ capacity by year-end. In the motor segment, Inovance Technology plans to support about 2 million frameless torque motors for humanoid robots this year, with plans to expand to about 3 million units next year.

Revenues are also showing rapid scaling trends.

Leadshine expects shipments of frameless torque motors to rise from about 120,000 units in 2025 to over a million in 2026; Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics expects humanoid robot-related revenues to at least double to RMB 40 million this year, or possibly around RMB 100 million in an optimistic scenario; Huayan Precision Machinery expects related revenues to reach nearly RMB 100 million this year and RMB 400–500 million next year.

Product Structure Evolves, Share of Full-Size Robots Continues to Rise

Morgan Stanley forecasts that as commercialization advances, the product structure of humanoid robots will gradually tilt toward full-size models.

In 2026, half-size humanoid robots, such as the Unitree G1, are still projected to account for about 70% of total shipments, mainly for entertainment, data collection, government projects, and interactive business services. As operating capabilities increase, the share of full-size robots is expected to rise to about 50% in 2027 and further to 70% in 2028.

On pricing, Morgan Stanley expects the industry’s comprehensive average selling price in 2026 to decrease by 15%, but driven by a higher proportion of full-size robots, is expected to slightly rebound by 5% and 2% in 2027 and 2028, respectively.

The bank points out that most robot manufacturers have not yet achieved fully automated production, but some equipment suppliers have already received related orders; there remains considerable room for improvements in manufacturing efficiency and cost reductions.

Many Upcoming Catalysts, Q3 May Be a Key Window for the Industry

Morgan Stanley points out that the third quarter of 2026 will be a concentrated window of catalysts for the humanoid robot industry.

Specific events include: the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in July, the 2026 World Robot Conference (WRC) from August 19–23, the Second World Humanoid Robot Games from August 22–26, and the release/update on mass production progress of Tesla’s Optimus Gen 3.

Meanwhile, Unitree Robotics passed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Listing Committee review on June 1, awaiting registration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission; DeepRobotics and Leju Robotics submitted prospectuses on May 18 and 19, respectively. The IPO progress of several humanoid robot manufacturers will also continue to draw attention to the sector.

Morgan Stanley expects a wave of product launches surrounding the above events, which could provide positive momentum for the sector.

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The above highlights are from Wind Trading Desk.

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