The Iran War so far: The Middle East is the biggest loser, the US is "internally shifting," and Russia is the biggest winner.
An energy crisis is redefining the global wealth landscape.
According to Wind Trading Desk, George Saravelos, Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, released a research report on March 30, providing a quantitative analysis of the impact of the Iran war on the external accounts of global economies from a balance of payments perspective. The report draws three core conclusions: the Middle East is the biggest loser, US wealth shifts internally rather than net increases, and Russia is the biggest winner.
The report's modeling assumptions are based on 2024 UNCTAD trade data, simulating an energy price increase of about 50% over current levels (roughly corresponding to oil and gas prices at the time of the report), and assuming Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) export volumes fall by 75%.
Middle East: Divergence in price and volume, hit from both sides
This energy crisis has an anomaly: the world's largest energy-exporting region has become the biggest victim.
The reason is straightforward: prices have risen, but goods can’t be sold. Models show GCC export volumes are expected to drop 75%. Prices double, but volumes fall three-quarters, and net income shrinks sharply.
Even worse, Middle Eastern countries have previously accumulated large reserves and private savings denominated in US dollars. Now, these savings are being used to fill the income gap—reserves are decreasing, and private savings are being liquidated.
The report points out that this money will ultimately flow to other energy-exporting countries. Middle Eastern wealth is flowing outward.
Europe and Asia are also losers, ranking alongside the Middle East as the three regions suffering the biggest income losses in this crisis.
United States: Wins with energy, loses overall
The US is the world’s largest energy producer and normally should benefit from higher oil prices, but the report’s conclusion is more nuanced.
“From a national income perspective, the US does not benefit significantly,” the report writes. “Essentially, wealth is being transferred on a large scale from consumers to energy producers.”
This is internal redistribution, not external net inflow. The US only exports a small fraction of its energy output; most is consumed domestically. When oil prices rise, consumers pay more, producers earn more, but the overall national external account improvement is very limited.
This also explains a market puzzle: why hasn't the dollar strengthened significantly as historical patterns would suggest, even as the energy shock escalates?
The logic given: Middle Eastern countries are selling off their dollar reserves, and the new gains for energy exporters like Russia are unlikely to all flow into US assets. If these dollar holdings are switched to assets like the renminbi, gold, etc., rather than recirculating into US Treasuries, the dollar faces persistent structural pressure.
Russia: Biggest winner, followed by several small countries
Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter and doesn’t face the sharp drop in export volume that the Middle East does.
The logic is simple: they can sell, and at higher prices. The report clearly identifies Russia as the biggest beneficiary of this energy crisis.
Trailing behind are a group of small and medium energy-exporting countries, including Norway, Australia, Canada, as well as Iran itself.
Dollar under pressure, US treasury market faces challenges
From a foreign exchange market perspective, the core warning of the report falls on the dollar and US Treasuries.
Falling foreign exchange reserves pose direct pressure on the US Treasury market—the countries reducing their reserves are also the biggest holders of US Treasuries.
At the same time, the flow of new wealth towards energy-exporting countries will determine the dollar's medium-term trend. The report points out that if these funds do not flow back into the US but instead go to the renminbi or gold, the dollar will remain under pressure.
The report also admits the limitation of its analysis: the model is static and does not consider the effect of demand destruction. If the crisis worsens, actual demand decline will be inevitable. In addition, countries like China hold large oil reserves and can buffer the shock by drawing on inventory, while possibly benefiting from accelerated renewable energy development.
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The content above is from Wind Trading Desk.
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