The Jackson Hole convention has concluded. Besides Walsh's "hawking" (referring to a high-profile event), here are some key points.

The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium has concluded. In addition to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish debut, several global central bank officials also released key signals, and the political turmoil has not yet subsided.

According to an article on Wall Street Insights , Warsh explicitly listed curbing inflation as the Fed's top priority in his keynote speech, warning that inflation has not yet shown a substantial slowdown and that the Fed "still has work to do" if it cannot confirm that inflation is moving toward the target at a sufficient pace. This statement immediately boosted market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike, and market attention quickly turned to the consumer inflation data released on September 11, and the subsequent Fed policy meeting on September 15-16.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank officials warned of inflation on the sidelines of the meeting, favoring a September rate hike; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, on the other hand, took a relatively dovish stance, suggesting no rush to act. Furthermore, the political turmoil surrounding the Trump administration's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook intensified again on the eve of the meeting, adding further uncertainty to this year's conference.

It is worth noting that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda were absent from this meeting, as was former Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Walsh's debut was marked by a "hawk": Inflation is the top priority.

Warsh used his Jackson Hole keynote address to deliver his most substantial policy statement since becoming Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

He explicitly stated that the 2% inflation target—measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—is a "firm, fixed target," allaying concerns about a possible adjustment to the inflation target. He also pointed out that current financial conditions are not constraining the economy and characterized interest rates as the "primary tool" for the Federal Reserve to achieve its mission. Warsh stated in his speech:

"My standard is this: we must be certain that underlying inflation is moving clearly and at a sufficient pace toward our target. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our responsibility."

Although Warsh did not explicitly state his support for interest rate hikes, his words were enough to prompt a market repricing. Following the speech, expectations for a near-term rate hike clearly intensified, and the CPI data on September 11th and the September policy meeting immediately became the focus of the market.

It is worth noting that Warsh has consistently avoided providing guidance on the interest rate path to the market. Although this speech still did not provide clear forward guidance, it has alleviated investors' information hunger to some extent and added suspense to the September meeting.

European Central Bank: Inflationary pressures persist, September rate hike expectations rise.

During the breaks in the meeting, central bank officials from the Eurozone also released hawkish signals.

According to Bloomberg, Primoz Dolenc, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and governor of the Central Bank of Slovenia, said that the resilience of the eurozone economy and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East both point to the need for an interest rate hike in September, which is in line with market expectations.

"New data shows that the inflation situation has not resolved itself."

Martin Kocher, the governor of the Austrian central bank and also a policymaker at the European Central Bank, pointed out that there is "more momentum" in the economy. Analysts estimate that the eurozone inflation rate reached 3.3% in August, to which Kocher stated that the authorities remain "vigilant, not complacent."

Bank of England: Wait and see, no rush to raise interest rates

In contrast to the hawkish tone of officials on the European continent, Bank of England Governor Bailey sent a more cautious signal.

Bailey stated that the UK is experiencing a fairly mild second wave of inflation, and the labor market has been softening for some time. "I think we can continue to observe this situation for now."

This was Bailey's first public statement on monetary policy since July 30, when he and a majority of committee members voted 6-3 to keep interest rates unchanged.

Technological Challenges: The Future of Tokenization and Monetary Policy

Besides providing policy signals, Jackson Hole is also an important platform for high-level economic research and discussion. This year's symposium focused on financial innovation and its impact on payment systems and monetary policy.

Economists and policymakers at the conference discussed how tokenization is revolutionizing the way financial assets are held and transferred, and engaged in in-depth debate on the regulatory challenges this trend presents. Related papers revealed that central banks worldwide still face significant pressure in addressing the challenges posed by technological change.

Political Turmoil: Trump Pressures Cook Again

On the eve of the conference's opening, a political controversy added an extra layer of context to this year's Jackson Hole convention.

The White House has reportedly restarted its efforts to fire Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud against him. On August 26, Cook's lawyers issued a statement calling the allegations "baseless and untrue." The White House has not immediately responded.

Previously, Trump narrowly lost his first attempt to oust Cook in the Supreme Court, partly due to procedural issues.

Analysts believe this incident serves as a reminder that, despite Warsh's appointment as head of the Federal Reserve, the White House's political pressure on the Fed has not completely ceased.

Absent: Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, and Powell

Several notable absentees were present at this year's Jackson Hole conference.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda were absent from the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting to be held in North Carolina from Monday (August 31) to Tuesday (September 1).

On the Federal Reserve front, the only policymaker absent is former Chairman Jerome Powell. After his term as chairman expired in May, Powell broke with convention by choosing to remain a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but as he had previously promised, he has largely faded from public view.

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