The length of the U.S. government shutdown is approaching a historic record, Trump has misjudged the Democrats' determination, and a "critical moment" is approaching.

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From October 1 to now, the US government shutdown is about to enter its 32nd day, just one step away from the 35-day record set in 2018-2019.

31 days, 22 hours, and 21 minutes—the countdown to the government shutdown on the White House website continues…

Currently, the prospects for breaking the deadlock remain bleak. According to a CCTV News report on November 2, according to the latest meeting schedule of the US Senate on November 1, the Senate's next vote to advance an appropriations bill to end the government "shutdown" will start as early as the evening of November 3, which will be the 34th day of the current US government "shutdown".

US Vice President Vance even warned that if the stalemate lasts until the Thanksgiving holiday in late November, US air traffic could face a "disaster."

The Trump Administration Misjudged the Resolve of the Democrats

Media analysis points out that the core of this deadlock is that the Trump administration and its Republican allies failed to anticipate the Democrats' tough stance in budget negotiations.

At the start of the shutdown, White House officials made internal predictions, none of which envisioned a shutdown lasting more than ten days. They believed that unpaid leave for federal employees, limited public services, and Budget Director Russ Vought's threats to cut more jobs would be enough to force the Democrats to compromise.

However, as the stalemate entered its second month, Trump's patience had clearly run out. He told reporters on Friday:

“The Democrats have no idea what they’re doing! I don’t know what’s wrong with them. They’ve never done anything like this before. They’re simply becoming crazy. All they need to say is, ‘Let's go, open our country.’ Everything will immediately return to normal. So, there must be something wrong with them.”

It’s all their fault. It’s all their fault. This problem is very easy to solve…

Trump turned to open pressure, demanding that Republicans trigger the “nuclear option” to abolish the Senate filibuster so that the appropriations bill could be passed by a simple majority and unilaterally reopen the government.

But this demand was quickly rejected by top party leaders such as the Senate Majority Leader. The proposal drew little support among Republicans, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson both expressed their positions on maintaining the rule.

Meanwhile, according to the latest ABC poll, more Americans blame Trump and Congressional Republicans for this government shutdown, despite the White House website stating that “the Democrats shut down the government.”

The Shutdown Continues: US Economy and Society Face Multiple Challenges

Trump’s tough stance comes as the US economy and society face multiple pressure tests.

According to CCTV News, funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food aid to about 42 million low-income Americans, was cut off as of November 1. Meanwhile, due to staff shortages, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued ground delay orders in places like New York and Boston, and pressure on the aviation system is increasing by the day.

One of the most urgent problems is the interruption of SNAP funding, a program covering about one-eighth of the US population. Although a federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration must use emergency funds to maintain the program, Trump responded that he needs to wait for the court to provide "appropriate legal instructions" and warned that disbursements may still be delayed.

Chaos in the aviation industry is also intensifying. Reportedly, absent rates for air traffic controllers working without pay are rising, leading to flight delays at major airports like New York and Dallas.

In addition, millions of government employees have already missed their first full paycheck, and the US Treasury Secretary warned that military salaries could face a funding cutoff on November 15.

Meanwhile, as the new annual open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) begins, many consumers are facing substantial premium increases because enhanced subsidies implemented during the pandemic have expired.

The “Critical Moment” Approaches, Eyes on November 3

Amid the deadlock, there was a glimmer of hope in bipartisan negotiations this week. Reports indicate that lawmakers involved in the talks said progress had been made. Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto stated on Thursday that the week's discussions have been "more productive than ever."

However, core disagreements in the talks remain. Democrats insist on negotiating the extension of near-expiry ACA subsidies before reopening the government, while Republicans demand that Democrats vote to reopen the government first before discussing other issues.

Last Friday, Trump reiterated that unless Democrats opened the government first, he would not meet with Democratic leaders. His remarks about abolishing the filibuster have further added obstacles to these "delicate negotiations."

With the negative impact steadily accumulating, both sides are under increasing political pressure. The US Senate is currently planning to hold the next vote on the evening of November 3 (the 34th day of the shutdown), and the market is closely watching to see whether the two parties can reach a compromise at the last minute.

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