The longest government shutdown in history! Trump: Impacts the stock market, but still expects new highs, should reopen as soon as possible.

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The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 36th day, making it the longest federal agency closure in history. On November 5 local time, Trump expressed concern about the ongoing government shutdown while having breakfast with Republican senators at the White House.

According to media reports, Trump stated that the government “shutdown” is negatively impacting the stock market, the aviation industry, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) food subsidies. At the same time, he called for Republicans to immediately end the filibuster and said “legislation should start passing tonight” in order to push for a government restart as soon as possible.

Although Trump admitted that the government shutdown caused a “slight impact on the market,” he pointed out at the breakfast meeting that U.S. stocks have set multiple records over the past nine months and claimed the U.S. now has “the strongest economy in history.” Trump added that, as new factories in the U.S. “come online,” the market recovery momentum will only grow stronger.

As of press time, all three major U.S. stock indexes moved higher, with the Nasdaq rising more than 0.6%.

Weekly economic losses up to $15 billion

This government shutdown has lasted 36 days, surpassing the record set during the early 2019 shutdown in Trump’s first term. Analysts estimate that the shutdown costs the U.S. economy $10 billion to $30 billion per week, with most forecasts around $15 billion.

Economists point out that the economic damage this time may far exceed the past, not only because of the longer duration, but also due to fundamental shifts in America’s economy. Compared with the 2018-19 shutdown, the current U.S. economy is more fragile: people are generally facing inflationary pressures and job uncertainty. The range of this shutdown’s effects has also grown significantly—in addition to the interruption of federal employee pay, more crucially, millions of low-income people will lose food assistance eligibility during the holiday season.

Jonathan Millar, Senior U.S. Economist at Barclays Bank UK, said,

“History shows shutdowns do not cause disaster. But this time may be different.”

Impact spreads to agricultural sector and food aid

In the first month of the government shutdown, about $24 billion in federal goods and services procurement spending has been frozen. As the shutdown enters its sixth week, its chain reaction is spreading to contractors and suppliers supposed to get those funds.

Thousands of private businesses relying on U.S. Small Business Administration loans are facing cash flow interruptions. According to the agency, as of October 21, the shutdown has blocked loans totaling $2.5 billion for 4,800 small businesses.

Meanwhile, the shutdown has delayed food assistance. While the Trump administration said this week it would partially fund November SNAP benefits, that will only cover half of normal household allowances, and may take weeks to be disbursed, expected to affect 42 million people relying on this benefit.

Clarissa Clarke, government relations officer at the North Texas Food Bank, expects demand will surge if food stamps (SNAP) cannot be issued, and existing reserves may be overwhelmed during the holiday season.

Another program affected by funding interruptions is “Head Start,” which provides early education for children from low-income families. According to the National Head Start Association, more than 8,000 children and families have already lost this service, and it warns that, if the government remains closed, the affected number will increase daily.

Outlook for reopening still unclear

During the talks, Trump again urged Republicans to end the “filibuster” procedure to break the deadlock on the government shutdown. The filibuster requires most bills to have supermajority support to advance, while abolishing it would make it easier for the majority party to pass bills. Previously, Trump called for its abolition, a suggestion immediately opposed by Republican leadership.

According to CCTV News, under current rules, most Senate legislation requires at least 60 votes out of 100 to advance. Although Republicans currently hold a Senate majority with 53 seats to 47, they have not reached the 60-vote threshold, so Democrats can effectively block bills with the filibuster. As of the 5th, attempts at temporary funding bills to end the shutdown have failed 14 times in the Senate for lack of 60 votes.

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