The market has entered a historic metals scramble! Deutsche Bank: Copper prices could reach $22,050 amid severe shortages.

With global copper inventories at unprecedented lows, any disruptions on the supply side could further amplify market tensions. Deutsche Bank believes the copper market is shifting from a demand-driven logic to a supply liquidity crisis, with upside risks to prices clearly increasing.

According to reports, Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Ghali predicts that copper prices will rise to $22,050 per tonne in the second quarter of 2027, more than 50% higher than Monday's price of $14,458.50 on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Ghali describes the current market as a "historic metals scramble" as buyers race to lock in increasingly limited spot supplies.

In his view, the current copper market is struggling to withstand multiple pressures simultaneously, including continued stockpiling in the US, further restocking demand, significant disruptions in refined copper supply, and an unexpected tightening of the global supply-demand balance. As available inventories continue to decline, the market pricing logic is shifting from "demand growth" to "competition for limited supply," and copper prices are becoming increasingly sensitive to supply-side disturbances.

With inventories continuing to tighten, the copper market has entered a phase of supply competition.

Deutsche Bank believes that continued stockpiling in the United States is further altering the global copper inventory distribution. The bank estimates that if the current trend continues, by the end of this year, the US and major Asian consumer markets could hold a combined 71% of global copper supply, further compressing the available spot resources in other regions.

Even if the US ultimately does not impose copper tariffs, copper may not necessarily flow back to other markets. Because US copper futures prices are at a premium to LME prices, and the LME has warehouses in the US, once copper enters the US system, even if the premium narrows, it may continue to circulate between different storage locations in the US rather than re-entering the global market.

Ghali further warned that if the stockpiling trend continues, the copper supply available to other global users could even run out by the end of 2028. However, this extreme scenario may ultimately be mitigated through price mechanisms: after a significant rise in copper prices, some users will seek to substitute copper with aluminum. Although aluminum has lower conductivity, its cost advantage may drive this demand shift.

Deutsche Bank forecasts an average copper price of $20,900 in 2027.

The problem is that current copper prices are still insufficient to trigger large-scale substitution. This means that supply tightness is likely to persist and support copper prices until prices become truly high enough to change end-user behavior.

Deutsche Bank predicts that the average price of copper will reach $20,900 per ton in 2027, and hit $22,050 in the second quarter of 2027; the average price will fall back to $18,500 in 2028, reflecting the market's expectation of gradually restoring balance after experiencing extreme tension.

In the short term, copper prices still have significant room to fall before reaching this target. On Monday, LME copper prices fell 1.33% to $14,428.50 per tonne. The current price is still more than 50% below Deutsche Bank's 2027 target price, meaning that the transition from current prices to an extreme shortage scenario is not a linear process. Tariff policies, refining capacity, and changes in actual demand will continue to determine whether this round of copper market tensions can further evolve into a genuine supply crisis.

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