The market is awaiting the Fed meeting minutes. US stock index futures, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds are flat. The onshore RMB breaks 7, and spot silver rebounds nearly 4%.

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As the end of the year approaches, market trading is light, and major global stock markets have entered a phase of narrow-range consolidation, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes. The metals market shows a differentiated pattern, with gold, silver, platinum, copper, and nickel rising, while palladium hit its limit-down during the session.

On December 30, US stock index futures were basically flat, most European stock indexes fell, and Asian stock indexes were mixed. The US dollar and US Treasuries were basically flat, while the onshore RMB broke through the key 7 level. Metals diverged—silver rebounded by 4% recouping some losses, spot gold rose more than 1%, London copper surged nearly 3%, palladium hit limit-down. Crude oil edged down slightly, and cryptocurrencies rose modestly.

The Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 31, and these minutes are expected to provide key guidance on the path of interest rates into 2026. At the December 10th meeting, the Fed decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, but internal opinions were divided: two policymakers favored keeping rates unchanged, while another advocated a larger cut of 50 basis points.

According to the dot plot published in December, most policymakers expect only one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026, though a few members' projections differ significantly, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook.

Highlights of the core market movements:

Dow futures up 0.01%, S&P 500 futures up 0.01%, Nasdaq futures down 0.02%

Euro Stoxx 50 index opened down 0.1%, Germany’s DAX down 0.1%, UK FTSE 100 up 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.2%.

Nikkei 225 closed down 0.4% at 50,339.48; Japan's TOPIX closed down 0.5% at 3,408.97; South Korea's KOSPI closed down 0.2% at 4,214.17

10-year US Treasury yield was basically flat at 4.11%

The US dollar index was basically flat; onshore RMB broke the 7 level for the first time since 2023

Spot silver rose over 4% to $75.14/oz; spot gold up 0.8% to $4,365.33/oz; base metals mostly rose, London copper up nearly 3%, London nickel up nearly 5%, London tin up nearly 2%, and London zinc up over 1%; WTI crude was basically flat at $58/barrel

Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $87,319.51, Ethereum up 0.3% to $2,943.17

US stock index futures are basically flat. Although this year’s 17% gain in the S&P 500 lags most major global stock markets, there is a consensus on Wall Street that US stocks will continue their upward trend through 2026. Despite facing potential risks such as slowing AI development and sudden policy shocks, sell-side strategists still predict the index could see an average gain of about 9% next year.

Today is the last trading day of the year for Japanese and Korean stock markets. Since the beginning of this year, South Korea’s KOSPI has risen a cumulative 75.6%, the largest increase since 1999. The Nikkei 225 has held above the 50,000 mark.

The onshore RMB strengthened past the 7.0 level against the US dollar, reaching its strongest level since May 17, 2023. Previously, the offshore RMB already surpassed this closely watched psychological threshold on December 25. Market participants expect that, supported by inward capital flows and economic recovery expectations, the RMB still has room for appreciation.

Spot silver rebounded nearly 4% to $74.7/oz, after plunging 9% in the previous session. Before this round of selling, silver had historically surged due to strong speculation and concerns about structural supply shortages.

Spot gold rose nearly 1% to $4,368.68/oz, after falling more than 4% in the previous session.

London copper once rose nearly 3%, and copper prices are expected to register their longest rising streak since 2017. December’s rally has been boosted by expectations of more supply chain pressure.

WTI crude oil was basically flat at $58/barrel. Traders continue to assess geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals. Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, Iran, and elsewhere continue to pose potential disruptions to crude oil supply, while structural concerns about global crude oversupply persist.

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