The prospects for US-Iran peace talks are uncertain, and Iran's billions in oil revenue are insufficient to fill the huge economic gap.

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The timetable for US-Iran nuclear negotiations is in doubt, control disputes over the strait continue to ferment, and for ordinary Iranians, even if US sanction exemptions bring a short-term oil windfall, the road to economic recovery remains far off.

According to Xinhua, US President Trump announced on social media Monday, the 29th, that "US-Iran talks will be held tomorrow in (Qatar) Doha." However, Iran quickly downplayed the news of Tuesday's talks. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Monday evening that Iran has no plans to hold talks with the US in the next few days, and the expert delegation Iran sent to Doha this week has nothing to do with the US delegation. The clear information gap between both sides casts uncertainty over the prospects of peace talks.

Meanwhile, the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming another front outside the negotiation table. According to US media, US officials revealed that the US and Iran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire, and ships currently can freely pass through the strait. Although international crude oil prices rebounded briefly Monday due to the agreement to pause attacks, issues like strait transit fees, whether the rebound in Iran's oil exports can be sustained, and whether the Iranian government can turn foreign exchange income into domestic economic recovery momentum, all form the core risk exposures for the current market.

Dispute over Strait Transit Fees: Escalating from Bilateral to Multilateral Game

The issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz is evolving from a bilateral diplomatic dispute into a multilateral game affecting the global energy trade landscape.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi revealed on social media Monday that Iran has held its first talks with Oman regarding the future management mechanism of the strait. Reportedly, Oman has told European officials that pre-war transit rules are no longer sustainable, and transiting ships may have to pay certain fees. In public, Omani officials insist they will abide by international maritime law.

US Secretary of State Rubio stated clearly in Bahrain last week that any form of transit fee or charging mechanism is unacceptable. The US, Europe, and Gulf Arab countries are generally alert to this trend, believing that if a precedent is set, other countries may follow suit, thus raising global energy transport costs.

Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi, with a tough stance during his visit to Iraq last Sunday, openly declared that Iran has "sole responsibility" for restoring normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and warned that any external intervention risks escalation. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas were transported through this strait.

Haris Khurshid, CIO at Chicago’s Karobaar Capital LP, commented: "The market increasingly views these volatility events as tactical rather than structural changes. Until a fundamental shift occurs, traders are happy to trade reversals both ways."

8 to 10 Billion Dollar Oil Windfall, Hard to Fill Economic Hole

The Trump administration last week issued sanctions waivers to Iran, allowing it to sell oil and settle in dollars, opening a window for Tehran to obtain urgently needed foreign exchange. According to the Wall Street Journal, despite ongoing conflict, Iran's oil exports have begun rising. Analysts estimate that just from oil sales, Iran may earn up to $10 billion in the next two months.

Gregory Brew, Senior Analyst at Eurasia Group focused on Iran, estimates that these oil sale waivers are worth about $8 to $10 billion to Iran in 60 days. He noted, "It’s a windfall in the short term, but not enough to restart the whole economy. War caused huge destruction to industry and infrastructure, the government needs to make people believe peace will last, and airstrikes won’t return."

Yet, compared to Iran’s reconstruction gap, this income is a drop in the bucket. Iranian official estimates say conflict-related losses are around $270 billion; a UN report points out about 150,000 civilian buildings were damaged, including 51,000 homes in Tehran. Energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimated that after gas plants, refineries, petrochemical centers, and export infrastructure were hit, the repair cost for Iran’s energy industry may reach $19 billion.

The IMF predicts Iran’s GDP will shrink 6.1% this year—its harshest recession since the 1980s. Inflation rate is expected to average nearly 70% for the year, with year-on-year inflation reaching 88.6% in June. Since conflict broke out, over a million Iranians have lost their jobs, currency has devalued to historic lows, months-long internet shutdown hit e-commerce harder. Last week, bread prices in Tehran soared, prices of two common traditional breads nearly doubled.

Public Confidence Hard to Rebuild, Oil Windfall May Once Again “Go Missing”

The Iranian public’s doubts about this round of oil windfall are deeply rooted in historical experience. After the 2015 nuclear agreement, sanction relief did raise oil exports and restored some links to global trade, but the results were brief and unevenly distributed—unemployment remained high, most families saw almost no improvement in wages, jobs, or buying power. Trump, in his first term, withdrew from the deal and reimposed sanctions, erasing any gains.

Some Iranians worry about history repeating: even if negotiations reach an agreement, relief will be too brief to truly improve daily life. More people worry that the new oil income will first go to the regime and its allies, not to ordinary families.

A self-employed technician in Isfahan province told US media he expects the agreement’s impact on ordinary people’s lives to be negligible: "The government will just keep the new money for itself." He said bluntly: "We are more afraid of ceasefire, agreement, regime continuation than war itself."

A 26-year-old Iranian woman who lost her marketing job during the conflict said she has drastically cut her spending, and even if the agreement holds temporarily, she lacks confidence: "Right now I really can’t make any plans for the future," she said.

The head of an auto parts importing business said during the war he had to lay off workers, sell inventory to pay debts, and massively cut costs just to barely keep the business running; now, even with the temporary agreement bringing some calm, he is still waiting for a final deal before returning to normal planning. "Planning is almost impossible, we’re forced to take risks continuously."

All this means Tehran faces ongoing internal and external pressure in talks with Washington—it needs deeper sanctions exemptions as well as time for the economy to truly recover, if it is to support the regime’s domestic legitimacy.

Risk warning and disclaimerThe market has risks, investments need caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the possible special investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their own specific situations. Investing on this basis is at your own risk. ```