The risk of conflict in Iran remains high, and the Trump administration may take action to further curb oil prices; reports say there are plans to extend the Jones Act “ship ban” exemption.

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The risk of restarting military conflict in Iran remains. As oil prices continue to fluctuate under the impact of geopolitical tensions, the US government is considering extending a shipping policy originally seen as an emergency measure.

According to media reports on Thursday, the 23rd Eastern US time, sources said the Trump administration plans to extend the temporary shipping waiver on a century-old law to further ease bottlenecks in US domestic oil transportation and stabilize energy prices. This waiver was initially implemented in mid-March for 60 days and is set to expire on May 17.

Analysts believe that overall, extending the Jones Act waiver is more of a "marginal buffer tool," aimed at improving logistics and easing regional tensions rather than determining oil price trends. Against the backdrop of global energy supply and demand still dominated by geopolitics, this policy’s symbolic significance may be exceeding its actual impact on prices.

Temporary Emergency Policy to be Extended

The message revealed on Thursday indicates that the White House is focused on whether to extend this waiver while the energy market remains unstable. The decision to continue exempting energy transportation from the Jones Act constraints could be announced as early as Friday, the 24th Eastern US time. It is currently unclear how long the extension will last, or what commodities will be included.

According to the Jones Act, passed in 1920, maritime transport between US ports must use ships that are "US-built, US-registered, and US-crewed." This system has long been seen as raising shipping costs and limiting capacity.

According to Xinhua, on March 18, a month ago, US President Trump announced a 60-day suspension of the Jones Act, removing restrictions on domestic port shipping to curb the rise in oil prices caused by the actual closure of the Hormuz Strait.

Earlier this week, media reported that the Trump administration was considering extending the waiver period for the above law. This move aims to allow oil and refined products from the Gulf Coast to flow more smoothly to other regions in the US, thereby easing localized supply shortages.

Policy Intent: Overcome Domestic Transport Bottlenecks and Hedge Oil Price Shocks

The core logic of the Jones Act waiver is to address the "structural mismatch" in the US energy market.

US refining capacity is mainly concentrated on the Gulf Coast, but the East Coast and West Coast highly depend on maritime supply, and the number of ships compliant with the Jones Act is limited, resulting in high transportation costs and low efficiency.

By lifting the restriction, foreign tankers can participate in domestic transport, significantly expanding capacity in the short term. Data shows that after the implementation of this policy, the size of available tankers in the US increased by about 70%, prompting multiple batches of interregional oil shipments.

At the policy-making level, this is considered an important tool for easing logistics bottlenecks and reducing regional price differences.

Actual Impact: Oil Price "Anchor" Still in Global Market

From market feedback, the actual impact of this policy on oil prices is relatively limited.

Analysts believe the Jones Act waiver primarily improves domestic transportation efficiency in the US, but does not increase the overall supply of crude oil or refined products, making it difficult to reverse price increases caused by geopolitical conflicts.

Actual data confirms this. Nearly a month after the waiver’s implementation, US oil prices remain high, and the impact of lower shipping costs only provides a marginal relief of a few cents per gallon, which is offset by the rise in crude oil prices.

Earlier this week, media pointed out that this policy has not significantly boosted domestic oil flow, and has even fueled increased fuel exports, highlighting its limited transmission to domestic demand prices.

Policy Dilemma: Balancing Symbolic Meaning and Actual Effect

Despite its limited effect, the Trump administration is still considering extending the waiver, reflecting the current constraints of energy policy.

On one hand, with global supply disrupted and oil prices prone to rise, the government’s short-term tools are limited, and it needs to continually signal "stable supply" with policies;

On the other hand, the Jones Act involves the US shipping industry, employment, and national security, and is seen as a major pillar of industrial protection. Keeping restrictions loose long-term may trigger political controversy.

In fact, historically, waivers of this law have usually only been used short-term in emergencies such as hurricanes. This continuous waiver triggered by war is already quite rare.

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