The Russia-Ukraine process has experienced many twists and turns: preparations for a "Trump-Putin summit" have encountered obstacles, and Europe has, for the first time, clearly responded to Trump by calling for an "immediate ceasefire."

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The Russia-Ukraine peace process saw a dramatic turn this week. Although preparations for a US-Russian meeting have stalled, major European leaders issued a joint statement on Tuesday to promote a ceasefire between the two sides.

According to CCTV News, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated on October 21 that the US and Russia have not yet reached an agreement on a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio. This has cast a shadow over the preparatory conference originally scheduled for this week and made Trump’s previous declaration of a “Trump-Putin summit” to be held in Budapest within two weeks uncertain.

Meanwhile, on October 21, leaders of several European countries signed a joint statement supporting an immediate ceasefire based on the current front lines and the initiation of peace talks, marking the first clear European response to Trump’s ceasefire proposal. Leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, Finland, Denmark, Norway, and senior EU officials expressed their “strong support” in the joint statement for Trump’s stance on an immediate end to military operations.

Driven by rising expectations of a ceasefire, risk-averse assets such as precious metals dropped sharply in the short term, with New York gold futures once down 2% and New York silver down 5%. However, the issue of territorial ownership remains the biggest obstacle to peace talks. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump has proposed that both sides “split” the Donbas region along the current front line, while Ukrainian President Zelensky has explicitly rejected Russia’s demand for a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donetsk and Luhansk.

Russia-US Foreign Ministers’ Talks Fail, Summit Preparations Hindered

According to Xinhua News Agency, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on October 20 that Lavrov and Rubio had a phone call that day, conducting “constructive discussions” on the consensus reached during their countries’ leaders’ previous call, and discussed specific measures to implement it. However, no further details were disclosed in the statement.

On October 21, Ryabkov stated to the media: “We are not even close to reaching an agreement on the time and place for such a meeting. Such an event is very important and needs preparation, which is exactly what we are doing now.”

According to CNN, the planned meeting between Lavrov and Rubio was postponed following their phone call. An unnamed White House official said, the US believes Russia has yet to sufficiently shift from its maximalist demands, but the two may have another call this week. Sources revealed that Rubio and Lavrov differ in their expectations about the prospect of Russia halting its offensive against Ukraine.

Xinhua News Agency reported that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US-Russian leaders’ meeting on October 21. He said the call for an “immediate ceasefire” amounted to ignoring the root causes of the conflict and violated the consensus previously reached by the presidents of both countries. Russia insists on the positions on Ukraine agreed upon by the US and Russian presidents at their meeting in Alaska.

US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Pigott said in a statement that Rubio emphasized the importance of the upcoming contacts, considering it an opportunity for both countries to jointly promote a lasting solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in line with Trump’s vision. White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said President Trump has always been committed to a peaceful diplomatic resolution.

Multiple European Countries Sign Joint Statement, Support Ceasefire Along Current Front Line

Amidst the deadlock in US-Russian preparatory talks, European leaders expressed support for Trump’s ceasefire proposal in a joint statement issued on October 21.

According to Global Times, the statement, jointly signed by German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, leaders of Poland, Finland, Denmark, Norway, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, says: “We strongly support President Trump’s position on an immediate end to military operations and taking the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations.”

The statement also emphasized all parties’ commitment to the principle that “international borders cannot be changed by force” and that pressure on the Russian economy will be increased.

Ukrainian President Zelensky also joined in signing the statement, supporting the proposal to freeze military operations along the front line. According to Global Times, Zelensky said on October 20 that if invited, he would join the talks with the US and Russian leaders at a planned summit in Budapest.

The statement’s first explicit emphasis on “taking the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations” is seen as a signal that Europe and the US have reached a consensus on the ceasefire framework and that the ceasefire process has entered a substantive stage.

Territorial Dispute Becomes the Biggest Obstacle to Ceasefire

Although all parties have expressed more positive attitudes toward a ceasefire, the issue of territorial attribution remains the core obstacle to reaching an agreement. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump said on Air Force One on October 19, Russia and Ukraine should “divide” the Donbas region along the current front line, demarcate for ceasefire, and each withdraw their troops.

Trump said: “Keep the status quo. That land is now divided; I think 78% of it is controlled by Russia. Just let things stay as they are. Further negotiations can be carried out later, but my opinion is to draw the ceasefire line and pull back troops based on the current front, go home, and stop fighting.” US media interpreted that this plan would allow Russia to control most of Donbas.

The Ukrainian National News Agency reported that Zelensky reiterated on October 19 in a meeting with journalists that Ukraine’s position on the terms of ceasefire remains unchanged and that they will not accept Russia’s request for a full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk and Luhansk. Zelensky said that during his visit to Washington last week, he “explained” this position directly to Trump.

According to The Washington Post on October 18, citing informed sources, Russian President Putin hinted in a phone call with Trump on the 16th that as a condition for ending the conflict, Russia is willing to give up parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson under its control in “exchange” for Russia’s full control over Donetsk.

According to TASS and other media reports on October 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on Trump’s remarks about a “ceasefire along the current line” between Russia and Ukraine, saying this issue had been brought up more than once in US-Russian contacts. “Our response is well-known and has always been consistent. There has been no change in our position.”

Trump said at the White House on October 20 that he does not think Ukraine will achieve ultimate victory, but then added: “They can still win. War is a strange thing; anything could happen.”

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