The second country to win the "TACO deal" has emerged: Brazil!
Four months ago, Brazil faced the threat of an additional 40% tariff from Trump, and has now become the second country to win a tariff exemption through a tough stance. This outcome validates the saying "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), and provides other countries with a new reference path for dealing with White House policies.
According to CCTV News, on the 20th local time, the White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to revise the tariff scope for goods imported from Brazil. While the 40% ad valorem tariff will remain for some goods, due to progress in negotiations, the additional ad valorem tariff on certain Brazilian agricultural products arriving in the U.S. after midnight EST on November 13 will be removed. The White House stated that this move aims to balance national security concerns with the development of trade relations with Brazil.
Previously, Brazilian President Lula refused to bend to White House pressure, firmly defended judicial independence, and former President Bolsonaro has already been sent to prison by Brazilian judges. Brazil's tough posture ultimately won it a tariff exemption.
The turnaround stems from the White House's growing concern about domestic cost-of-living pressures. Brazil's victory reveals the deeper logic behind White House decision-making: Although Trump's policies are often erratic, there is a clear hierarchy of objectives behind them—with the core hegemonic pursuit of "Making America Great Again" as the goal, geoeconomic policy as the strategy, and tariff threats and dramatic statements as tactical tools that can be adjusted at any time.
The Reward of Toughness
The core motivation behind the White House’s policy shift this time appears to be its rising anxiety over the increasing domestic pressures on cost of living in the U.S.
Recent surveys show that as President Trump’s approval rating dips, U.S. consumer confidence falls in tandem. Analysts believe Trump’s team is urgently searching for ways to lower grocery prices, and cutting tariffs on imported agricultural products is a fast-acting policy option. Therefore, lifting punitive tariffs on Brazilian agricultural goods can be seen as a pragmatic adjustment by the White House to relieve domestic inflation pressure—where political considerations at home have overtaken the intent to punish Brazil.
Brazil’s victory offers an important lesson to other countries: when faced with bullying, toughness may be more effective than flattery.
Analysts point out that bullies often respond to strength. Unlike Switzerland, which once sent executives bearing gifts and bowed to Trump in hopes of reducing tariffs, Brazil chose a different path. Its tough stance is similar to the approach used by other countries: resisting resolutely in order to win favorable outcomes.
Decoding the White House Model: Goal, Strategy, and Tactics
To understand the Trump administration's behavioral pattern, it is necessary to distinguish between "goal," "strategy," and "tactics." Although Trump’s policies are often derided as inconsistent, or even attributed to his personality, there is a logic that can be interpreted beneath them.
According to FT columnist Gillian Tett, Trump’s instinctive "goal" always revolves around his "Make America Great Again" slogan.
Under this goal, his advisors transform instinct into "strategy," whose main theme is "geoeconomic" decision-making. This means the White House favors using economic tools to consolidate hegemony, mixing issues of economics, politics, technology, military, and personal vendettas together. For example, attempting to use tariffs to force Brazil to release Bolsonaro, or his allies’ threat to tariff Norway because its sovereign wealth fund announced it would divest from Caterpillar.
And beneath all of this are the "tactics." These tactics borrow from Trump’s typical business negotiation playbook—bullying, threats, dramatic performances, policy swings, and, as former strategist Steve Bannon called it, the “flood the zone” information strategy. These eye-catching tactics are aimed at securing bargaining chips, but should not be confused with deeper strategy or goals.
The Logic of "TACO Deals"
Because these dramatic moves are usually just tactics, not deeply rooted goals, the White House can swiftly change course without embarrassment when they backfire or when other priorities arise. This is how "TACO deals" come about.
When a tariff threat risks triggering higher domestic prices, thereby harming political foundations, the White House will not hesitate to abandon it. This explains why the Brazilian tariff threat suddenly vanished last week, and also why Trump could fiercely attack newly elected New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and then quickly embrace him. Some may argue this analysis is "whitewashing" the White House, but the key is to distinguish signal from noise.
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