The second half of nuclear power: Execution is king!

Nuclear energy is moving from policy consensus to the stage of substantive construction. The market will increasingly reward companies that can demonstrate real delivery capabilities—whether it’s the operation and expansion of existing units, or a credible path from licensing to groundbreaking for advanced reactors.

According to Wind Traders, Barclays’ latest research report shows that since 2026, the triple drivers of energy security, decarbonization, and AI computation demand have continued to strengthen. Global nuclear ecosystem stocks have risen 19% year-to-date, while uranium mining and processing sectors have soared by 30%, vastly outperforming the global index's 6% increase.

The escalation in the Middle East has become an important catalyst for the accelerated nuclear policy globally. The U.S. Trump administration announced an injection of $2.7 billion for domestic uranium enrichment capacity. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has successively granted construction permits for TerraPower and Holtec’s advanced reactor projects. In Asia, Tokyo Electric Power Company’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 resumed commercial operation. In Europe, both Sweden and Switzerland are advancing legislation to repeal nuclear bans. At the same time, Meta signed package deals with Vistra, TerraPower, and Oklo to potentially support up to 6.6GW of nuclear capacity, marking a shift by hyperscalers from single-asset support to portfolio procurement.

Barclays maintains a bullish stance toward the nuclear energy sector in its report but also notes the market is becoming more selective—investors increasingly tend to reward parts of the value chain closer to realizing profits, including uranium mining and processing, engineering & construction companies, and electric power producers with existing capacity. Meanwhile, small modular reactor (SMR) developers with no revenue face greater valuation uncertainty.

Market repricing: Rewarding execution, not narrative

Barclays data shows that as of April 21, 2026, the Barclays Global Nuclear Ecosystem Index (BCGLNUCL) has risen 19% year-to-date, and the Barclays Nuclear Uranium Index (BCNUCLUR) is up 30%, both significantly outperforming the MSCI World Index (MXWD) at 6%.

However, Barclays analysts Jordan Isvy and Maggie O'Neal emphasize in their report that the market’s rally is not evenly distributed.

Engineering and construction companies are performing the best—for example, Hyundai Engineering & Construction is up an astounding 142% this year. Utility companies that own existing nuclear capacity and can benefit from power uprates or license extensions have also performed strongly, with Engie SA up 26% year-to-date. In contrast, stocks of advanced reactor companies like NuScale and Oklo are more volatile, reflecting investors’ growing caution towards timelines, licensing risks, and gaps between technology validation and contractual projects.

Barclays concludes that the next stage of the nuclear theme will more sustainably reward “enablers” and “existing operators.” Investors are less willing to pay for nuclear energy merely based on narrative, and increasingly prefer to reward actual megawatt delivery, visible licensing progress, or at least a credible path from concept to contracted projects.

Policy acceleration: From endorsement to empowerment

By 2026, global nuclear policy has shifted from principled support to concrete industry policies being implemented, with substantive progress in North America, Europe, and Asia.

In the U.S., the Trump administration regards nuclear energy as a geostrategic tool to win the global AI race, launching a series of aggressive industrial policies. The Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded about $900 million each to Centrus, Orano, and General Matter to expand domestic uranium enrichment capacity, covering both high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) needed for advanced reactors and low-enriched uranium (LEU) for conventional light water reactors. NRC has granted a construction permit for TerraPower’s 345MW Natrium project in Kemmerer and accepted a phased construction permit application for Holtec SMR-300 at Palisades.

In Asia, the Middle East crisis has made energy security ever more pressing. Tokyo Electric Power Company’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 resumed commercial operation for the first time since the Fukushima accident. South Korea’s government approved the 11th Basic Plan, promising to add 2.8GW of large reactors and 700MW of SMR capacity by 2038. India has broken its national monopoly through legislation, opening the civil nuclear market to private capital; its goal is 100GW of installed nuclear capacity by 2047.

In Europe, energy sovereignty issues continue to strengthen nuclear’s strategic position. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently emphasized the role of nuclear energy. Sweden’s parliament abolished the uranium mining ban effective January 1, 2026, reclassifying uranium as a licensed mineral; Switzerland’s senate committee is advancing legislation to end the ban on new nuclear plant permits. Barclays notes that public attitudes toward nuclear in Europe have shifted to be more accepting since the 2022 energy crisis, providing a popular foundation for policy advancement.

Hyperscale tech companies: Providing revenue certainty for nuclear projects

The explosive growth in AI computing demand has made electricity supply the primary bottleneck for data center expansion. Hyperscale tech companies are now providing crucial revenue certainty for nuclear projects via long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and pre-payment mechanisms.

The most significant commercial development of 2026 is Meta’s portfolio nuclear procurement. In January this year, Meta announced agreements with Vistra, TerraPower, and Oklo to potentially support up to 6.6GW of new and existing clean energy capacity. Combined with its previous PPA with Constellation for the Clinton Clean Energy Center, Meta has built a diversified nuclear procurement system covering operational units, power uprates, and advanced reactor pipelines.

Of particular note is Meta’s 20-year PPA with Vistra, which covers over 2,600MW of capacity at three nuclear stations within the PJM grid—2,176MW of existing generation and a combined 433MW of power uprate across Perry, Davis-Besse, and Beaver Valley stations. Vistra says the agreement gives it certainty to plan for subsequent license extensions for these stations.

Meta’s deal with TerraPower supports development of up to eight Natrium advanced reactors, with a base capacity of 2.8GW and up to 4GW including storage systems. The first units are targeted to come online in 2032. TerraPower positions this agreement as a pathway for multi-unit deployment, not just a single demonstration project. Barclays sees this as key to solving the long-standing issue of efficiently scaling nuclear beyond the first unit. The Meta-Oklo agreement uses a pre-payment mechanism to support a 1.2GW advanced nuclear campus in Pike County, Ohio, and Oklo's stock jumped 20% on the day the news was announced.

Previously signed agreements are also converting into actual construction. The Hermes 2 project, a collaboration between Kairos Power and Google, broke ground at Oak Ridge in April—this is the first fourth-generation commercial-scale reactor in the U.S. to be granted a construction license and will supply up to 50MW of clean power to the TVA grid. TerraPower also announced last week that its flagship Natrium project, Kemmerer Unit 1, has officially started construction—less than two months after receiving its NRC permit.

Bottlenecks easing, but workforce issues increasingly pronounced

Barclays believes the key difference between the current nuclear cycle and previous fleeting surges is that some substantive bottlenecks are beginning to be solved.

The most noticeable progress is in the fuel cycle. DOE's $2.7 billion uranium enrichment support plan, combined with the ban on Russian uranium imports starting in stages from 2028, is driving physical supply growth. Uranium Energy Corp has started production at Burke Hollow in Texas—the first new uranium in-situ recovery (ISR) mine built in the U.S. in over a decade. Canada’s NexGen Rook I project is moving toward commissioning within this decade after final approval in 2026.

In permitting and project delivery, advanced reactor developers are entering formal licensing queues and starting construction. Kairos Power’s Hermes 2 equipment modules will be prefabricated at its Albuquerque facility and assembled at Oak Ridge, demonstrating the industry is bridging the gap between design ambition and actual delivery.

However, workforce is becoming an increasingly prominent bottleneck. Barclays highlights in its report that compared to progress in the fuel cycle and permitting, workforce constraints are deeply structural and not easily relieved in the short term. The core issue is not overall employment levels but the scarcity of specialized skills, geographic concentration, and timing mismatch—nuclear, data center, and electric power projects are often competing for the same pool of electrical engineers, nuclear specialists, and experienced construction workers.

The issue is most visible in the UK, where EDF announced in February that commissioning of Hinkley Point C’s first unit would be delayed by another year to 2030 because electrical installation productivity was lower than expected. Barclays believes workforce shortages are pushing up costs, lengthening construction timelines, and increasing execution risk, possibly becoming the most important residual obstacle to advancing nuclear’s resurgence.

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