The shift in the situation prompted Trump to "change his stance": he will authorize overseas production of Patriot missiles for use in Ukraine.

As Ukraine achieves breakthrough progress on the battlefield, the US is making a major turn in its security assistance policy for Ukraine. This geopolitical development is reshaping market expectations about the outlook for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. US President Trump unexpectedly shifted his tough stance on Ukraine at the NATO summit held in Turkey, announcing authorization for overseas production of critical air defense systems for Kyiv’s use.

According to CCTV News, on July 8 local time, Trump, during a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the NATO summit, said the US will grant permission for overseas production of the expensive and long-cycle “Patriot” air defense system for Ukraine. Trump also emphasized that he believes both Russia and Ukraine wish to end the conflict, and the two sides “will reach an agreement.”

This statement marks a sharp shift in attitude from US policymakers, directly easing European allies’ concerns about potential US reduction in aid to Ukraine. According to the UK's Financial Times, granting Ukraine large-scale access to US military manufacturing aims to counter Russia’s ballistic missile threats and force Moscow to change its strategic calculations. This not only signals continued long-term US support for Kyiv, but also could accelerate the arrival of ceasefire negotiations.

The core catalyst for this policy shift is a substantial reversal in the battlefield situation. According to The Paper, after months of deep and sustained Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s oil refining infrastructure, a nationwide fuel crisis has erupted in Russia. The damage to energy production not only hits Russia’s economic fundamentals but also gives Kyiv a key bargaining chip in potential peace talks.

According to CCTV News, on the 8th, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the government has imposed a diesel export ban and started importing oil products in July.

Dramatic Turn: From Pressure to Authorization of Military Manufacturing

At the early stage of the Turkey NATO summit, Trump continued his usual criticism toward European allies.

According to reports, Trump not only threatened to withdraw troops from Europe but also criticized Spain, the UK, Germany, and Italy over the Iran issue. Yet, during his meeting with Zelensky, Trump’s attitude unexpectedly changed. This forms a sharp contrast to the tense atmosphere of their February 2025 meeting at the White House when Trump accused Zelensky of “having no bargaining chips.”

In Ankara, Trump told Zelensky they had established a “very good relationship” and praised Ukraine for having a “broad future.” Regarding the decision to grant “Patriot” production licenses, Trump called this move “very cool.” A NATO diplomat summarized:

“It’s relatively simple—Trump likes winners, and Ukraine has recently started winning.”

This shift in tone has made European leaders optimistic. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer both recognized the unity shown in the summit’s outcome. Rutte’s praise and Turkish President Erdoğan’s mediation in private meetings are considered to have helped moderate Trump’s mood.

Trump’s decision to authorize production of the “Patriot” system is not only military aid, but also an economic and geopolitical tool to force Russia back to the negotiating table.

Orysia Lutsevych, Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, stated that once the “Patriot” license is implemented, Russia’s remaining ballistic missile threat could be gradually resolved over time.

According to reports, officials revealed that Trump has learned Ukraine currently holds the initiative in the war and believes Putin is in trouble due to Ukraine’s advantage in medium and long-range drone technology. During the summit, Trump stated, he believes the conditions for Putin to end the war are “changing”, emphasizing the US has exerted great pressure on Putin.

Battlefield Reversal: Ukrainian Drones Severely Damage Russia's Energy Lifeline

The US shift in attitude follows Ukraine’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.

According to The Paper citing CCTV News and Xinhua News Agency, Ukrainian special forces used upgraded FP-1 drones on July 6 to strike deep into Russian-controlled territory, nearly 2,700 kilometers, successfully hitting Russia’s largest Omsk refinery. Reuters reported that its CDU-10 crude distillation unit, accounting for about 38% of total capacity, was damaged and caught fire in the attack.

Attack operations are rapidly expanding. On July 7, Ukrainian forces attacked at least ten Russian oil tankers delivering fuel to Crimea across the Sea of Azov; in the early hours of July 8, Rostov Governor Slyusar confirmed the region had suffered massive drone attacks, causing damage to two oil tankers.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff stated that by early July, attacks had crippled about 43% of Russia's oil refining capacity. Oil market analyst Gary Peach of Energy Intelligence said Russia’s June crude oil processing dropped 25% year-on-year to 3.95 million barrels per day, a more than twenty-year low, with gasoline output far below domestic demand, forcing Russia to start importing gasoline from India and Belarus.

Damage to energy infrastructure is rapidly turning into domestic economic pressure in Russia. According to The Paper, since late June, over half of Russia’s 83 federal subjects have implemented fuel purchase limits, capping each car at 20–30 liters and banning the purchase by jerry cans. Irkutsk Oblast and Zabaykalsky Krai have declared a “heightened alert status” just below emergency level; Crimea has entirely banned selling fuel to ordinary citizens.

According to CCTV News, on the 8th, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated, the government has implemented a diesel export ban and begun importing oil products in July. Novak made this statement at a government meeting presided over by President Putin. The meeting, held by video, focused on the operation of fuel and transportation infrastructure under current conditions.

Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory, pointed out that while Russia still has nationwide fuel reserves, redistribution of supplies faces huge logistical challenges and requires weeks to reach shortage areas. This supply-demand mismatch causes long queues at gas stations, even up to 18 hours, and sparks social friction.

The fuel crisis further drags down Russia’s macroeconomic outlook. Russia’s central bank forecasts domestic GDP growth in 2026 at only 0.5%–1.5%. A recent Gallup poll shows 56% of Russian respondents report a decline in living standards, the highest in twenty years. To stabilize the situation, Deputy PM Novak said Russia may issue a short-term diesel export ban.

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