The "shovel sellers" in the wave of robotics! Morgan Stanley is optimistic about this key component, with growth potential as high as 300 times.
While global investors focus their attention on the "brain" of humanoid robots—large models, chips, and algorithms—Morgan Stanley turns its gaze to a more fundamental yet equally critical component: bearings.
On February 26, according to the Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley's star analyst Adam Jonas and others stated in their latest research report that bearings are essential for all forms of robots, cannot be replaced, are difficult to manufacture in-house, and as robots become more complex, the quantity and value of bearings used per machine will increase proportionally.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the global bearing market for robots will grow from about $827 million in 2025 to roughly $255 billion in 2050—a nearly 300-fold increase. This figure only includes original equipment demand and does not account for replacement and aftermarket needs.
Bearings are commodities, but this time is different
The report acknowledges that bearings are essentially commodities, but Morgan Stanley quickly counters:
"But as AI spreads into the physical world of robotics, we will need tens of billions of bearings. Establishing and maintaining a robotics economy in multiple countries and regions calls for reliable, redundant, and secure bearing supply sources."
In other words, even bearings with commodity attributes will face supply security, capacity redundancy, and localized manufacturing strategic demands under the macro narrative of the robotic economy, opening up premium opportunities for high-quality bearing manufacturers beyond traditional cycles.
Morgan Stanley divides the robotics industry chain into three broad segments: "Brain," "Body," and "Integrators." Bearings are clearly classified within the "Body" segment, alongside motors, gears/reducers, sensors, batteries, encoders, rare earth/magnetic materials, and other critical components, collectively forming the essential backbone of robotic physical capability.
This clear positioning indicates: In Morgan Stanley's robotics investment framework, bearings are not a marginal supporting role; they are as important as computing chips and vision sensors as core enabling technologies.
Notably, the report cites a highly convincing market signal: In OpenAI's recent U.S. domestic hardware manufacturing capacity RFP, precision bearings are listed as one of six key components under the robotics category.
Bearings 101: The "lubricant" everywhere in the world of robots
The research report points out that the function of bearings is straightforward and indispensable—in any machine with motion, bearings reduce friction and support rotating parts (wheels, joints, motors, etc.), enabling them to operate smoothly, precisely, and efficiently.
Bearing demand in robots is directly linked to degrees of freedom (DoF):
- A small quadcopter drone may be equipped with 8 to 12 bearings;
- A humanoid robot may require 70 or more bearings.
Morgan Stanley notes that the price range for each bearing varies from less than $1 to over $100, depending on the application and precision requirements. The more complex a robot and the higher its degrees of freedom, the more bearings it needs; the proportion of precision bearings also rises, meaning the average selling price (ASP) per machine has significant upward potential.
Why choose bearings for robotics-themed investment?
Morgan Stanley systematically outlines seven advantages of bearings as an investment target in robotics:
Form Factor Agnostic: Whether it's industrial robots, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, drones, or home robots, all robots need bearings;Low substitution risk: The physical function of bearings cannot be bypassed by design and is difficult to replace with other components;Low internalization risk: The likelihood of robot manufacturers producing bearings themselves is relatively low;Low obsolescence risk: As fundamental mechanical components, bearings are not susceptible to disruptive technological elimination;Content expands with complexity: The more complex the robot, the more bearings it requires—and the more valuable they become;Precision drives ASP growth: Structural advancement towards high precision bearings will continue to boost average selling prices;A cyclical sector with long-term growth prospects: The robotics wave is a long-term catalyst for a traditional cyclical bearings industry to be re-rated.
Morgan Stanley offers detailed quantitative forecasts for bearing demand in the robotics sector within its global robotics model, predicting that by 2050, market size will expand 300-fold from $827 million in 2025 to $255 billion.
The firm emphasizes that it is important to note that the above figures only include original equipment (OEM) demand and do not include replacement or aftermarket demand, suggesting that the actual market space could be even more substantial.
The report notes that demand comes from multiple robot forms, including: industrial robots, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, home robots, professional service robots, small drones, and large VTOL aircraft.
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