The signals from Wall Street's "Big Four" earnings reports: U.S. consumer spending is "unexpectedly stable"

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The latest quarterly reports from America’s four largest banks have sent an unexpected signal: Despite geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices and the stock market’s intense volatility, the financial situation of American consumers remains robust.

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo all released their first quarter results this week, showing that consumer credit quality and spending both continue to be healthy.

JPMorgan Chase Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said during an analyst conference call that the U.S. economy is "unexpectedly resilient," as are consumers. "The story remains the same: a very resilient consumer, performing well despite higher oil prices."

Jefferies analyst John Hecht believes that the results of the four major banks are positive signals for payment companies, including American Express, which will report earnings later this month.

Bank Executives Agree: Consumers Are "Resilient"

"Resilience" has become the key word repeatedly cited by bank executives this week when describing customer conditions.

Barnum said in the conference call that JPMorgan Chase has examined consumer conditions from multiple dimensions, including early delinquency roll rate, default rate, cash buffers, overall spending, discretionary spending, and non-discretionary spending: "All indicators remain in line with previous trends, fundamentally healthy."

He also cautioned about risks: If the labor market weakens and Middle Eastern conflicts persist, there will be knock-on effects. But for now, there are no clear signs of deterioration in consumer conditions.

Credit Quality Improves, Spending Structure Stable

Looking at the specific data, credit card spending patterns and balance growth among the four major banks have remained "constructive."

Jefferies analyst John Hecht pointed out that compared with a year ago, delinquency rates and net write-off rates at each bank have improved—these two metrics are important references for credit quality. Hecht wrote in a Wednesday report that bank performance "supports our judgment that borrower conditions remain stable. Despite persistent macro uncertainty, spending trends have been somewhat boosted by higher tax refunds."

The first quarter was not smooth sailing. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran pushed gasoline prices higher, inflation fears reignited, and stock market volatility suppressed borrower confidence. However, these external shocks have yet to leave obvious marks in consumer data.

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