The situation is escalating, and shipowners are preparing for a long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

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The escalation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the unfulfilled US pledge for military escort, is pushing this globally crucial energy chokepoint to the verge of prolonged blockade. Shipowners and traders have started preparing for the worst-case scenario, facing the most severe disruption risk to the global energy supply chain in decades.

On March 12, according to CCTV News, at dawn local time on the 12th, officials at Iraq's southern ports reported that two foreign oil tankers were attacked and caught fire within Iraqi waters. At least one person was killed and 38 crew members were rescued, after which Iraq suspended its oil port operations. The tanker attack caused oil prices to briefly surge above $100 per barrel, leading to increased consumer gasoline costs.

Although US President Trump has publicly stated he will dispatch the Navy to escort ships if necessary, according to officials from Gulf countries, the US has repeatedly rejected oil companies’ requests for escort. US naval officials stated the risk of sending warships into this narrow waterway is extremely high while the Iranian threat remains.

Currently, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain have collectively cut crude oil production by nearly 7 million barrels per day, to cope with the dual pressures of blocked exports and price fluctuations. If the blockade continues, the supply gap in the global energy market will further widen.

Even if the conflict ends, resuming passage will take time

The shipping industry generally holds little hope for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal operations in the short term. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, more than a thousand ships are currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf, with over 600 international trade vessels waiting in line to depart.

Jerry Kalogiratos, CEO of Athens-based Capital Clean Energy Carriers, stated bluntly, The precondition for resuming passage is not only the end of hostilities, but also for shipowners to be convinced that risks to personnel and vessels have been substantially reduced. “Take the Red Sea for example: shipping has not yet returned to normal even six months after the Houthis stopped attacks. It all comes down to perceptions of safety, and we are still far from that day.”

Even if the US launches military escorts, shipping companies' concerns are hard to dispel. Bridget Diakun, Senior Risk & Compliance Analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence in London, pointed out that some shipping and oil companies may still refuse to take risks. “Some have clearly stated that as long as attacks continue, and war is ongoing, they will not use their ships or crew as a gamble, no matter what.”

Iran's continued counterattacks paralyze passage through the strait

The Strait of Hormuz is the only seaway out of the Persian Gulf, and its narrowest point is only about 21 miles. Iran has deployed large numbers of anti-ship cruise missiles, aerial and maritime drones, mines, and submarines along the east coast of the strait, posing a comprehensive threat to passing ships.

The Revolutionary Guard intelligence department has also sent mass messages to mobile users across Iran, claiming that control of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran leverage over the global economy. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on social media Monday, saying, "'Nine days after the epic blunder began, oil prices have doubled and all bulk commodity prices have skyrocketed."

Although the US military has struck more than 60 Iranian naval vessels, military analysts point out that Iran still retains part of its "mosquito fleet" composed of manned and unmanned small boats. In addition, Iran’s anti-ship missiles are installed on mobile launchers that can fire at extremely close range, making them difficult for defense systems to detect in time.

US Navy escorts face real constraints

Trump stated at an event on Tuesday, “When the time is right, the US Navy and its allies will escort tankers through the strait if necessary.” White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly also reiterated that the president “is fully prepared to provide US Navy escort when deemed necessary.” However, US naval officials said they have not yet received orders to escort, and warned that carrying out the mission under current conditions would expose warships to extremely high risk.

Military analysts question the feasibility of escorts. Bryan Clark, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Pentagon official, pointed out that the strait is extremely narrow and too close to the Iranian coast. “Drones can fly over ships within seconds, dramatically increasing the number of escort ships needed.” He estimates that each tanker may need two warships to escort it against multi-directional threats from the coast and nearby islands.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine said Tuesday that the military would deploy appropriate forces if tasked. However, retired Admiral James Foggo pointed out the reality: "These ships are already extremely busy," and escort missions face a bottleneck due to insufficient vessel numbers.

Economic shock spreads; alternative routes cannot fill the gap

According to UN trade agency data, the week before the outbreak of war, 38% of global seaborne crude oil trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Tuesday that a prolonged blockade of the strait will have "catastrophic consequences" for the global oil market, and severely disrupt the global economy.

Facing blocked export routes, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are urgently expanding the capacity of alternative pipelines. However, sources report that Saudi Arabia must divert oil from domestic refineries to do so, further tightening an already fragile supply of refined oil products.

Rising oil prices are putting increasing political pressure on the Trump administration. With domestic concerns about fuel costs and inflation mounting, how to resolve the economic shock brought by the blockade of the strait has become a thorny challenge the White House must confront.

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