The state of the U.S. economy now depends on Nvidia!

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Nvidia, the chip giant with only 36,000 employees, is becoming a key force in determining the direction of the global macroeconomy in 2026.

According to information from the Chase Wind Trading Desk, Jim Reid, head of Global Macro Research at Deutsche Bank, and his team emphasized in a recent research report that technology spending, especially AI-related capital expenditure, is the key to understanding the current resilience of the US economy. Without the boost from technology-related spending, the US economy should be near or already in recession.

Chart data shows that after excluding technology spending such as software and IT equipment, the core indicator regarded as a measure of potential economic momentum—real final sales to domestic private purchasers—had slipped into recession territory by early 2025.

The report further stresses that the core driver of technology spending is "huge AI capital expenditure." The market generally expects that as long as the potential profitability of AI is not fundamentally questioned, this wave of investment will not stop, and will continue to be an important macroeconomic theme in 2026.

The report argues that it is precisely this enormous capital expenditure that explains why weak employment data has not dragged down economic growth, and also explains why global trade remains resilient despite generally sluggish global demand.

Deutsche Bank ultimately narrowed the focus to the core company of this AI wave—Nvidia. The report bluntly states that from a simplified perspective, perhaps Nvidia holds the key to all global macroeconomics in 2026.

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