The Strait of Hormuz controls more than just oil routes—it also controls internet routes.

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Under the shadow of Middle East conflict, a risk clue that has rarely received attention is surfacing—the submarine cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

According to media reports, Iran publicly warned last week that the submarine cables in the strait constitute a vulnerable node for the region’s digital economy, raising market concerns about the security of critical infrastructure. So far, Amazon Cloud Services’ data centers in Bahrain and the UAE have been affected by the war, but submarine cables have not been directly attacked yet.

Analysts point out that even if deliberate sabotage is excluded, risks of accidental damage during wartime, such as those caused by ships' dragging anchors, cannot be underestimated. Geopolitical and energy analyst Masha Kotkin stated: “In the context of active military operations, the probability of accidental damage increases; the longer the conflict lasts, the higher this risk becomes.” Once the cables are damaged, Gulf countries will face direct impacts on internet connectivity, financial transactions, and e-commerce operations, while current satellite systems cannot provide an effective substitute.

Not Just an Oil Chokepoint, but the Global Digital Lifeline

Multiple submarine fiber optic cables pass through the seabed of the Strait of Hormuz, forming a vital digital corridor connecting India, Southeast Asia, Europe, passing through Gulf countries and Egypt. According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), submarine cables carry about 99% of the world’s internet traffic—those passing through the strait are key components of this global network.

Major cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz include: the Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE-1), which connects Southeast Asia and Europe and has landing points in the UAE, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia; the FALCON network, which connects India, Sri Lanka, Gulf countries, Sudan, and Egypt; and the Gulf Bridge International cable system, which covers all Gulf countries. In addition, a new submarine cable system led by Qatari telecom operator Ooredoo is also under construction.

Currently, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are investing billions of dollars to develop artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure to promote economic diversification. Both countries have established national AI companies targeting the regional market, whose data transmission relies heavily on submarine cable networks.

Wartime Environment Amplifies Accidental Damage Risks

Experts point out that the threats facing submarine cables are far more than intentional attacks. According to the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC), from 2014 to 2025, even though the total length of submarine cables grew substantially, the number of annual fault incidents remained stable at about 150 to 200, of which 70% to 80% were caused by accidental human activities such as fishing and ship anchors, with deliberate sabotage being only one of the risks.

Wartime environments significantly amplify the probability of accidental damage. Geopolitical and energy analyst Masha Kotkin cited a 2024 case: a commercial vessel attacked by Iran-backed Houthi forces in the Red Sea drifted, and its anchor dragged and broke a submarine cable—this precedent is directly relevant to the current conflict.

Alan Mauldin, research director at telecom research agency TeleGeography, said the industry typically reduces risks by burying cables, adding armored protection, and optimizing routing, but underwater currents, earthquakes, underwater volcanoes, and typhoons are also non-negligible natural threats.

Repairs and Alternatives Face Multiple Obstacles

Even if cables are damaged, repair work faces multiple obstacles in conflict zones. TeleGeography research director Alan Mauldin pointed out that the physical repair itself is not complicated, but shipowners and insurers of repair vessels may hesitate due to combat risks or the presence of mines.

Obtaining permits to enter relevant territorial waters is another major bottleneck. Mauldin said that it often takes a long time to obtain permission to enter the waters where the cable was damaged, making it one of the main obstacles to repair. After the conflict ends, the industry will also need to resurvey the seabed to confirm safe cable laying locations and avoid ships sunk during the war or other obstacles.

If a submarine cable is damaged, land-based links can provide some backup connectivity, but experts unanimously believe that satellite systems cannot provide a viable alternative. Mauldin emphasized that it is not possible to simply switch to satellites, as they rely on terrestrial network connections and are more suitable for aircraft, ships, and other mobile scenarios. Geopolitical and energy analyst Masha Kotkin also added that low Earth orbit networks represented by Starlink “are a boutique solution that cannot currently scale to millions of users.”

Kotkin directly described the potential losses: “Cable damage means internet speeds decrease or are interrupted, e-commerce is hampered, financial transactions are delayed, and a series of resulting economic losses will follow.”

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