The Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens the Middle Eastern food supply chain; Iran imposes a comprehensive ban on food exports.

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As merchant ships are increasingly avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East's food import routes have been cut off, Gulf countries are facing the risk of shortages, and Iran—which is already mired in a high inflation crisis—is under sudden exacerbated pressure to supply food.

On Tuesday, Iran announced the comprehensive suspension of all food and agricultural product exports effective immediately, until further notice, to ensure the supply of essential domestic goods. Ishan Bhanu, an analyst at commodity data firm Kpler, warned that if the shipping disruption continues, Iran will face a "serious food problem."

The crisis has now spread beyond Iran itself. A Waitrose supermarket in Dubai, UAE, ran out of whole chicken and ground beef on Sunday, indicating hoarding behavior in the market. The UAE's Ministry of Economy and Tourism said on Saturday that the country’s strategic reserves are "sufficient, comprehensive, and diversified," and urged people not to stockpile goods.

Trade experts from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warn that if the conflict continues, shortages of sugar and tea may also occur.

Christian Henderson, Assistant Professor of Middle Eastern Studies and International Relations at Leiden University, Netherlands, stated that the region faces an "immediate risk to food security," and countries relying on the UAE as a transit hub—such as Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia—are facing similar shortages and price pressure.

Strait of Hormuz: Lifeline for Gulf Food Imports

The Strait of Hormuz carries the vast majority of food import flows for the Gulf region, and its strategic significance is immense. According to Kpler data, last year the Gulf region imported about 30 million tons of grain, with about 14 million tons going to Iran, mostly transshipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

Kpler estimates that about 40% of Saudi Arabia’s grain and oilseeds are imported through its eastern Gulf ports, while about 90% for the UAE enters through Dubai’s Jebel Ali port. Jebel Ali further handles containerized food and perishables for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar, serving a population of around 45 to 50 million people.

Henderson pointed out that Gulf nations are highly dependent on imported food, and disruption in the Strait poses a direct threat to food security in the entire region.

Few Alternative Routes, Rising Cost Pressures

According to FAO trade experts, Iran has already begun importing some grain by land, such as wheat from Russia and rice from Pakistan, and could also reroute via the Caspian and Red Seas. However, Bhanu said, "We believe these routes cannot compensate for the throughput of Persian Gulf ports."

Saudi Arabia can reroute some shipments through Red Sea ports, and the UAE can divert some trade to Fujairah port, which is outside the Strait of Hormuz.

But the port at Fujairah is mainly used for energy and fertilizer exports, and its container handling capacity is far less than Jebel Ali’s. "It can handle containers, but nowhere near the same capacity," Bhanu noted, adding that upgrading the port would also entail extra costs.

Henderson pointed out that wealthy countries, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have enough financial capacity to absorb increased import costs. In extreme situations, governments could choose to airlift high-value perishables, just as Qatar did during the 2017 blockade.

Iran: Double-Edged Pressure from Inflation and Sanctions

Iran is one of the countries under the most strain from this supply chain disruption. Although Iran has some domestic agricultural capacity, its imports of grain and oilseeds remain vast. Bhanu said, Iran "imports almost all" of its corn, and large quantities of soybeans and wheat, through the Strait of Hormuz.

This latest conflict adds to an already dire economic situation. According to data from the Iranian Statistical Center, as of the Iranian calendar month ending February 19, Iran's food and beverage inflation rate had surged to over 105%, while annual inflation was 47.5% in the same period.

In February this year, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that one-third of Iranians live below the poverty line. To address this, in January Iran launched a food voucher program, distributing a monthly subsidy of 10 million rials (about USD 6) per person for 80 million citizens to purchase basic necessities.

To make matters worse, U.S. sanctions on Iran’s financial system have made import payments increasingly difficult. Bhanu noted that over the past two months, several ships loaded with corn have been stranded offshore Iran, because importers are struggling to obtain hard currency to complete payments.

Vulnerability Varies by Country, Highest Risk for Small Inland States

Among Gulf countries, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain are in the most vulnerable position. All three lack their own large deep-water ports and are highly dependent on supply routes via Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

More remote countries like Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia also face risks. These nations rely on the UAE as a major shipment hub, so any constraint on Jebel Ali port’s capacity will directly disrupt both their food import costs and supply stability.

As for the current situation in the UAE, the lack of goods on shelves is more reflective of consumer hoarding than of a structural supply breakdown. However, analysts warn that if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz do not ease, this assessment could change quickly.

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