The tipping point has arrived! CXMT's IPO may ignite a new Capex cycle for domestic semiconductors.

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The structural expansion of AI computing power demand is pushing the global storage industry into a new round of capital expenditure supercycle, and Changxin Technology’s STAR Market IPO may become a key catalyst for domestic semiconductor supply chain orders to materialize.

In May 2026, Changxin Technology’s STAR Market IPO was approved by the listing committee, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan for three major projects: technology upgrades to the memory wafer manufacturing production line, DRAM technology upgrades, and forward-looking technology research and development. The Guolian Minsheng Securities team led by Xue Hongwei pointed out in a research report on the 7th that this node is significant not only for the capitalization of a single enterprise—Changxin’s current capacity utilization rate has risen from 87% in 2023 to about 96% in 2025, with production lines near full capacity and strong support for expansion needs. After the IPO fund-raising is in place, a new round of large-scale capital expenditure is expected to restart.

The transmission of capital expenditure will be released step by step along the industry chain, forming three benefit tiers: equipment, components, and materials. Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that the benefit sequence of this industry pulse is clear: the equipment segment benefits first, components ramp up with whole equipment orders, and materials/consumables continue to be realized after production line ramp-up—the elasticity order and investment rhythm of each segment will be the core logic of this round of allocation.

AI-Driven: Global Storage Manufacturers Simultaneously Increase Capex

This round of storage market upturn differs fundamentally from previous consumer electronics-led cycles; its core driving force is the rapid expansion of AI computing power demand.

The crowding-out effect of HBM on conventional DRAM capacity is the core mechanism of this round's supply-demand gap. According to TrendForce estimates, the share of wafer input for HBM among the three major makers will rise from about 18% of total DRAM wafer input in 2025 to about 22% in 2026, and further to about 30% in 2027. Since wafer capacity required per bit for HBM is about 2.5 to 3 times that of standard DDR5, each additional unit of HBM capacity squeezes out several units of general DRAM capacity, leading to a structural compression of DRAM supply.

The supply-demand gap is driving manufacturers to collectively raise capital expenditures. Micron’s FY2025 capital expenditure is about $13.8 billion; according to TrendForce, FY2026 is expected to exceed $25 billion, a YoY increase of over 80%. Samsung’s FY2026 total planned investment (including R&D) exceeds 110 trillion KRW (about $73.3 billion), breaking 100 trillion KRW for the first time; Samsung explicitly stated in its earnings call that “capital expenditure in the memory field will increase significantly in 2026.” SK Hynix’s FY2025 capex is about 30.2 trillion KRW (about $25.6 billion), with plans for a substantial YoY increase in FY2026, core projects including the Cheongju M15X new plant capacity ramp and the construction of AI data centers in Chungcheong region.

TrendForce forecasts AI demand will drive combined DRAM and NAND Flash revenue to $889.3 billion in 2026, rising to about $1.28 trillion in 2027, up 44% YoY, with DRAM rising to $903.3 billion, making it the core driving force of this round of market expansion.

Capex Transmission: Released in Three Phases, Equipment Takes the Lead

Changxin’s expansion capital expenditures will not be evenly distributed across the industry chain, but rather transmitted step by step in line with project construction progress.

The first phase is front-end equipment tendering and procurement. According to Economic Observer, Changxin officially began equipment bidding in Q2 2026, planning to expand production by 50,000 to 60,000 wafers for the year, corresponding to equipment purchase demand of $5 to $6 billion. SEMI data shows that equipment typically accounts for 70% to 80% of total line investment, thus the equipment segment is the first beneficiary in the chain.

The second phase is the driving force for core components. After equipment manufacturers receive bulk orders, they pass on stocking demand upstream. Core components such as chambers, vacuum systems, RF power supplies, and precision temperature control modules enter a cycle of mass stocking. Compared with equipment manufacturers, some core components require new precision machining lines, improved process capability, and customer validation for expansion, resulting in a relatively longer supply release cycle. In periods of high-demand growth, this easily forms supply bottlenecks, meaning performance elasticity may exceed that of equipment vendors.

The third phase is the continuous release of materials and consumables. Once line installation and debugging are completed and production ramps up, demand for consumables such as specialty electronic gases, wet chemical products, high-purity targets, and CMP slurries climbs with wafer input. This segment displays pronounced post-cycle attributes, but demand is strong and characterized by frequent repeat purchases.

Equipment First: Etching and Thin Film Deposition Form the First Tier

Within the equipment segment, Guolian Minsheng Securities has ranked the sub-sectors by unit value, localization base, and customer validation progress.

Etching equipment and thin film deposition equipment are listed as the first core tier. Etching equipment is among the most crucial pieces of process equipment in memory manufacturing. As DRAM processes continually shrink, requirements for pattern transfer accuracy and high aspect ratio structure processing keep rising; Changxin’s expansion will drive demand for etching equipment through both increased capacity and technology upgrades, while the repeatable manufacturing characteristic of memory products gives orders strong continuity once equipment is validated. Among domestic firms, AMEC has strong products in CCP and ICP etching, while NAURA has a platform layout in etching, thin film, heat treatment, and other front-end segments. Regarding thin film deposition, with process iteration, equipment such as CVD, ALD, and PVD are becoming increasingly important, and domestic companies already have a mass production base in some areas.

CMP and cleaning equipment comprise the second tier, closely related to new production line construction; companies like Huahai Qingke and ACM Research China have solid domestic bases. Localization rates are still low for coaters/developers, metrology/testing, and ion implantation, so short-term certainty is weaker, but once breakthroughs are made within the Changxin ecosystem, the low base can also drive notable performance elasticity.

Components Relay: Supply Bottlenecks Amplify Elasticity

Growth in equipment orders transmits upstream, with core components likely to show higher performance elasticity than complete equipment.

Semiconductor equipment consists of the integration of multiple functional systems such as precision mechanics, vacuum, gas/liquid transport, RF power, temperature control, wafer transfer, and electrical control. The precision and reliability of components directly affect equipment running efficiency and wafer yield. In the rapid upward phase of equipment demand, precision machining line expansion cycles are longer than for full machines; when key components such as vacuum pumps, sensors, and precision temperature control devices are in short supply, any single component shortage can become a bottleneck in the delivery of complete equipment.

Restricted overseas supply will prompt equipment makers to accelerate adoption of domestic suppliers, so Chinese component companies can expect "spillover" order opportunities. Additionally, some components—such as process kits, chamber liners, and gas distribution plates—are consumable in nature and benefit not only from new equipment installations, but also from maintenance and replacement in existing tools, giving revenue strong continuity.

Materials Late Play: Domestic Substitution Advances from Low- to High-End

The benefit rhythm for the materials segment lags equipment and components, but has the most sustained demand.

According to SEMI, the global semiconductor materials market will reach $73.2 billion in 2025, of which $45.8 billion is for wafer fabrication materials. In terms of localization progress, sub-categories are highly differentiated: advances in wet electronic chemicals are rapid, with an overall localization rate of about 50% in the semiconductor field by 2025; the electronic specialty gas market is still dominated by foreign companies, and as of June 2025, Air Products, Linde Group, Air Liquide, and Taiyo Nippon Sanso together account for about 86%, so there is still significant room for domestic substitution; high-end photoresists, advanced process specialty gases, etc., remain highly dependent on imports.

Domestic leaders in various sub-fields have made positive progress. In silicon wafers, as of the end of 2025, Shanghai Silicon Industry has a combined 300mm wafer capacity of 850,000 pieces/month; in CMP polishing materials, Dinglong’s HKMG cerium oxide slurries have successfully passed full-process validation and received mass orders from major domestic memory chip producers, while Anji Technology’s copper slurries have achieved stable 14nm mass production; for photoresists, Tonsan New Material already fully covers multiple products such as ArF and KrF, serving as a core local material supplier for 8- to 12-inch domestic IC lines. As Changxin and others ramp wafer input, the materials segment is expected to see post-cycle performance realization.

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