The U.S. "Black Friday" shopping season is here! Foot traffic may reach a new high, but consumer spending is becoming more cautious.

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American consumers are showing a contradictory trend this Black Friday shopping season: the number of shoppers is expected to reach a record high, but average spending has declined, reflecting concerns about tariff policies and rising living costs.

According to the National Retail Federation, this Thanksgiving shopping season is expected to attract 187 million consumers, a historic high, accounting for more than half of the US population. However, consumer spending willingness has significantly declined, with a Deloitte survey showing average planned spending down 4% year-on-year to $622.

Shoppers planning to tighten spending cited higher living costs and financial constraints as their main reasons. Accenture's holiday shopping survey notes that the expected total spending growth "mainly reflects price increases rather than improved consumer confidence."

Target's Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez said, consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest point in three years, with people concerned about employment, affordability, and tariff issues. The National Retail Federation survey shows that 85% of consumers expect tariffs to drive up the prices of gifts and holiday goods.

This shift in consumer behavior will have a significant impact on annual profits for retailers that rely on holiday sales, while reflecting a broader trend of slowing consumer spending in the US economy.

Retailers Extend Promotional Periods to Cope with Challenges

Facing cautious consumer sentiment, retailers are launching and extending promotional events earlier. Walmart offered three rounds of promotions this month, with the third round ending on Monday. Target's Black Friday campaign lasts all week, offering half-price deals on products such as Beats headphones, Instant Pot kitchenware, and Barbie dolls.

Kohl's new CEO Michael Bender told analysts that discretionary income remains under pressure, "especially evident among our mid- to low-income consumers and younger customers." He expects this year's holiday promotions to be even more intense.

Adobe Analytics data shows online sales so far this month have grown 7.5% year-on-year to nearly $80 billion.

Tariff Concerns Affect Consumer Confidence

Retailers have reported raising prices to offset increased import costs resulting from tariffs imposed this year by Trump on US trading partners. The National Retail Federation survey shows 85% of consumers expect tariffs to push up gift and holiday goods prices.

A report from The Conference Board this week shows that US consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since Trump launched a global trade war in April, casting a shadow over future sales prospects.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that holiday season sales in November and December will grow at an annual rate of 3.7%-4.2%, slightly slower than the 4.3% in 2024, but the total sales may exceed $1 trillion for the first time.

Market research firm Numerator's survey shows gift cards will be the most popular Christmas gift this year, followed by clothing and toys or games.

Deloitte retail research head Lupine Skelly said, the preference for gift cards may reflect consumer concerns about affordability. "When people start experiencing higher prices and talking about it extensively, they tend to choose gift cards," she said, "'I buy you a $50 gift card, so you can buy that $57 sweater.' This actually shifts the pressure to the recipient."

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