The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government shutdown has caused 1.8 billion dollars in economic losses.

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The economic damage caused by the U.S. government shutdown is emerging and intensifying.

On Wednesday, according to the latest assessment from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), this year’s government shutdown has resulted in at least $1.8 billion in economic losses, of which an estimated $700 million to $1.4 billion will be unrecoverable, depending on the final duration of the shutdown.

The report projects that if the shutdown enters its sixth week (around mid-November), real GDP growth for the fourth quarter will be 1.5 percentage points below normal levels, equivalent to a loss of $2.8 billion in economic output.

If the shutdown lasts eight weeks, roughly around the Thanksgiving holiday, the impact on real GDP will expand to two percentage points, which is $3.9 billion.

According to CBO analysis, the U.S. government shutdown is dragging down overall economic activity through multiple channels, including:

Reduced services provided by federal employees;Declines in output in the private sector due to disruption of government contracts and other reasons;As well as reduced government spending on goods, services, and food assistance.

Additionally, CBO warns that there are currently about 650,000 federal employees on unpaid leave. If all of these workers are classified as temporarily unemployed, the unemployment rate in October could rise by 0.4 percentage points, which would be the largest single-month increase since the outbreak of COVID-19.

However, CBO adds that most of the impact will be temporary and may result in a brief boost to growth in the first quarter of next year.

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