The U.S. government faces a shutdown at the end of the month—can a last-minute rescue happen? ICE becomes the focus.

```

The U.S. federal government is approaching a "partial shutdown," and whether a funding lapse can be avoided at the last minute will depend on whether the two parties in the Senate can reach a compromise on the DHS, especially regarding ICE-related immigration enforcement constraints.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Senate Republicans and the White House are attempting to finalize a temporary plan with Democrats this week to advance a package of funding bills. The Senate plans to review six spending bills totaling about $1.3 trillion, including the bill providing funding for the DHS. If Congress fails to send the bill to President Trump’s desk by late Friday night, current funding will expire at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, triggering a partial government shutdown.

The main disagreement is: Democrats are demanding that constraints on DHS immigration enforcement actions be "written into law," and prefer to separate or rewrite the DHS funding from the six-bill package; the White House and Senate Republicans insist on minimal changes to the bill text to avoid the bill being sent back to the House for a re-vote. The House is scheduled to reconvene next Monday, further limiting the operational window.

Shutdown risk has already been quickly priced into trades and policy expectations. According to Polymarket data, the market-estimated probability of a government shutdown before January 31 at one point approached 79%.

Core Dispute: Writing "constraint clauses" on ICE enforcement into the funding bill

Democrats have focused negotiations on immigration enforcement methods and their degree of external oversight. According to the Wall Street Journal, Democrats are presenting a list of demands, including: requiring judicial search warrants, mandatory body cameras and displaying identification, granting states the right to conduct their own investigations. Democrats have also proposed banning enforcement officers from wearing masks during federal operations.

The White House prefers to exchange "administrative adjustments" for passage of the funding bill. The Wall Street Journal, citing a government official, reports that the White House is willing to adjust immigration enforcement operations to secure passage of the final funding bill, and noted one step already taken is replacing the head of the Minneapolis operations, Gregory Bovino.

However, Democratic leaders have made it clear that verbal assurances or administrative actions alone are not sufficient to allay concerns. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said that "repairs" should come from Congress, and the public cannot simply trust the government "to do the right thing on its own." Senator Tim Kaine also stressed that only a "bill passed and signed by the president" would be "solid" enough.

In terms of funding, the DHS takes a significant share in this round of bills. The Wall Street Journal reports this package will provide about $64 billion in funding for DHS, including about $18.3 billion for Customs and Border Protection, about $10 billion for ICE, and also covering the Coast Guard, airport security, and federal emergency management.

Republicans Strive to Avoid House Re-vote

Republicans currently aim to ensure all six bills are advanced as a package to avoid any amendments that would trigger a House re-vote. According to the Wall Street Journal, Senate Majority Whip John Thune said he hopes both parties' discussions will "get to where we need to go," but warned that sending the revised bills back to the House carries "significant risk," as the House is narrowly controlled by Republicans, and "no one knows what will happen there."

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins also prefers to keep the package structure intact. She indicated there may be ways to respond to some requests, such as body cameras and search warrants, without rewriting the legislative text, and said she is discussing potential administrative measures with the Trump administration while waiting for Democrats to submit a formal list.

Democrats, meanwhile, are using "pass five bills first, negotiate DHS separately" as a bargaining chip. Chuck Schumer said that as long as the five bills excluding DHS are put on the agenda this week, Democrats are willing to push for swift passage; otherwise, Republicans will be to blame for a government shutdown. But splitting the DHS provision would require another House vote, and with the House in recess this week, the risk of a "short-term shutdown being hard to avoid" rises sharply.

The current appropriations deadlock originated from two deadly shootings in Minneapolis. On Saturday, a U.S. Border Patrol agent shot and killed a 37-year-old man in Minneapolis. This was the city's second deadly shooting by federal immigration agents this month, which shocked lawmakers and prompted Trump to adjust leadership of the enforcement actions.

As a conciliatory measure, the government has already replaced the Customs and Border Protection official in charge of the Minneapolis operations, Gregory Bovino, with Border Affairs Chief Tom Homan. On Monday, Trump also spoke with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. After months of refusal, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem has agreed to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on March 3.

Since Congress has already passed 6 out of 12 annual appropriations bills, some parts of the government will remain fully open, including the Department of Justice, Department of Agriculture, and the Veterans Affairs Department. However, the Department of Defense, Labor Department, Transportation Department, and Housing and Urban Development will be directly affected by the shutdown. DHS agencies such as FEMA, the Coast Guard, and TSA will also be impacted.

Risk Disclaimer and Limitation of LiabilityThe market carries risks, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not considered individual users' special investment goals, financial status, or needs. Users should consider whether the opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investing based on this information is at your own risk.

```