The U.S. government shutdown ends, U.S. stock futures rise, spot gold breaks above $4,220, and crude oil stabilizes.

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According to CCTV International News, on the evening of November 12 local time, US President Trump signed a bill at the White House, officially ending the longest government "shutdown" in US history. Upon the news, global stock markets continued to rise, at one point approaching historical highs.

US stock futures regained earlier losses, S&P 500 index futures recorded gains, European stock index futures indicated a new record high, and Asian stock markets also closed higher. At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates once the government resumes operations supported gold prices, which rose for the fifth consecutive day.

However, investors' attention is quickly shifting from Washington's political deadlock to a larger source of uncertainty: critical economic data delayed due to the shutdown, and how this data will affect the Fed's future rate path.

US stock futures recovered earlier losses, Nasdaq 100 index futures turned up 0.3%. S&P 500 index futures rose 0.2%.Euro Stoxx 50 index futures up 0.3%.Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.4%, at 51,281.83 points. Japan's TOPIX index closed up 0.7%, at 3,381.72 points.US 10-year Treasury yield rose by two basis points to 4.09%.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield was little changed at 1.690%.Dollar spot index was little changed.Euro exchange rate was little changed at $1.1584.Yen/dollar exchange rate little changed at 154.91.Onshore and offshore RMB both broke through the 7.1 mark against the dollar.Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $103,495.42.Spot gold broke $4,220/oz, the first time since October 21, up 0.61% on the day.Crude oil prices stabilized after the biggest one-day drop since June. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was near $58.

Data "fog" shrouds markets, investors wait for clearer economic prospects

The prolonged US government shutdown not only disrupted public services, but also created a huge economic "data vacuum"—the top challenge facing investors and policymakers. The White House has confirmed that, due to the shutdown, key indicators such as employment data and October Consumer Price Index (CPI) are unlikely to be released on time.

"Although the market is digesting the news of the shutdown's end, we still face a bigger hurdle: the restoration of all the economic data we've missed." said Michael Landsberg of Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management. "When the fog lifts, we'll see whether the market's current pricing is appropriate, whether the road ahead is smooth, or whether a major repricing is required."

Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management also stated that the real challenge is not the short-term drag on economic growth from the shutdown, but that due to the lack of data, both investors and the Fed are finding it increasingly difficult to judge the economic outlook.

In addition, some analysts warn that political risk has not been completely eliminated. Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, said the bill signed this time is a "continuing resolution" and "we may return to square one in February next year," suggesting that at that time both parties could again face a funding deadlock.

Spot gold broke through $4,220/oz, the first time since October 21, up 0.61% on the day.

Rate cut expectations support risk assets, but Fed officials remain cautious

In the absence of data, the market pins its hopes on the Federal Reserve's accommodative policy. Many investors expect that once economic data resumes release, it may strengthen the Fed's case for a rate cut in December and provide new momentum for a market rally.

Seema Shah believes, "As data is released again, the case for a December rate cut will re-emerge, reinforcing a 'risk-on' environment." She added that such an environment favors the US stock market, particularly large tech stocks and cyclical shares that benefit from an easier Fed stance.

However, there is not complete unanimity within the Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently stated that she prefers to keep rates unchanged. She believes current economic growth remains strong, which may slow or even impede progress in cooling inflation.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced that he plans to retire when his term ends in February next year.

New progress in trade negotiations, yen and oil markets under pressure

While investors focus on US domestic developments, key variables in other global markets are also evolving.

There are some positive signals on the trade front. According to sources, the EU is preparing to present a plan to the US to implement the next phase of the trade agreement reached this summer. In addition, Switzerland's senior trade negotiators are heading to Washington to conclude trade deal negotiations with the US.

In the foreign exchange market, the yen is in the spotlight. Traders are increasingly skeptical that Japan’s new government can support the yen through direct intervention, and USD/JPY is hovering near 155, close to levels that previously prompted authorities to intervene.

Commodity markets were mixed. Crude oil stabilized after its biggest one-day drop since June. Previously, OPEC indicated the point at which oil supply exceeds demand would arrive sooner than expected. Brent crude fell near $62 a barrel after a nearly 4% drop the prior session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was near $58. Affected by this, Australian energy stocks fell.

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