The U.S. Treasury Department has lowered its borrowing estimate for this quarter to $569 billion, as its cash balance is more ample than expected.

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The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday lowered its federal borrowing estimate for this quarter, mainly because it had more cash on hand at the beginning of the quarter. At the start of October, the Treasury General Account (TGA) cash balance had reached $891 billion, higher than the previously expected $850 billion.

In a statement, the Treasury said it expects net marketable borrowing (i.e., the total new funds raised from issuing U.S. debt to the public, net of maturing debt repayments) for the October-December quarter to be $569 billion, lower than the $590 billion forecast in July. This figure is also much lower than the record high of $776 billion set in October-December 2023. This estimate assumes the Treasury’s cash balance will be $850 billion, a figure that has remained unchanged over recent quarters.

The Treasury expects to borrow $578 billion from January to March next year, significantly lower than the record $748 billion in 2024, aiming to maintain the cash balance at $850 billion by the end of March.

In the previous quarter, the Treasury significantly increased its issuance of short-term Treasury bills to rebuild its cash balance after Congress passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling. Earlier this year, the Treasury’s cash balance had been depleted due to the standoff in Congress over the debt ceiling. However, the cash balance has now exceeded the previously set $850 billion target, whereas it was only $313 billion in July.

Media reports note that in addition to the cash balance, the Treasury’s borrowing estimates are also affected by tax revenue and other income sources such as tariffs. This Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on the legality of several tariffs imposed by President Trump. A senior official told the media that if tariff revenue declines, the borrowing estimates could be affected.

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