The UAE teams up with Saudi Arabia to urgently "advise peace" to Trump: Do not restart the US-Iran war.

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The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are joining forces to pressure US President Trump to leave room for diplomatic negotiations and avoid resuming military action against Iran. This move marks a rare coordination among the three most important US allies in the Gulf region regarding Iran, with the most notable change seen in the UAE—a country that had previously strongly advocated for a united retaliation against Iran and paid a heavy price for it.

Local time Friday, media reports citing multiple sources said the leaders of the three countries recently had phone conversations with Trump, making it clear that military action cannot achieve America's long-term goals regarding Iran, and urging Washington to give negotiations a chance. According to CCTV International News, today, US Secretary of State Rubio said the US-Iran talks have seen "some progress," but the US "fundamental position remains unchanged," that is, "Iran must never have nuclear weapons."

The direct background of this push for peace is the concern among countries that if hostile action resumes, Iran's retaliation will throw the Gulf economy into chaos.

The market implications of this diplomatic offensive cannot be ignored. The Strait of Hormuz was previously effectively closed due to war, causing energy prices to soar, impeding oil and gas exports from the Gulf countries, and leading to losses of billions of dollars at ports and energy infrastructure. If the situation escalates again, these impacts will repeat. Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last Friday that negotiations have made "slight progress," and Iranian media have issued similar signals.

UAE’s abrupt shift: From hawk to peacemaker

This shift in UAE’s stance forms a striking contrast with its tough posture a few months ago.

A previous Wallstreetcn article mentioned that after the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed immediately had intensive phone calls with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Gulf leaders, strongly advocating for collective Gulf retaliation against Iran. His central belief was that only collective action could form effective deterrence, citing the historical context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) being founded in 1981, precisely to respond to the Iranian threat.

However, Saudi’s answer was: This is not our war. Qatar briefly considered retaliation after its Ras Laffan LNG plant was attacked, but ultimately chose to play the role of mediator; Bahrain and Kuwait followed Saudi’s stance and stayed out; Oman’s closer relations with Iran meant it was never considered a potential participant.

After being rejected, the UAE chose to act alone, launching limited strikes against Iran from early March without support from Gulf allies, and striking again in April.

The UAE paid a price for this stance.

The war severely damaged the UAE’s aviation, tourism, and real estate markets, triggered mass layoffs and salary suspensions, and harmed its image as an international financial and tourism hub. Just last Sunday, a drone attack hit a UAE nuclear power plant, and Abu Dhabi attributed the attack to Iraqi militias supported by Iran.

Bloomberg Economics analyst Dina Esfandiary pointed out that the Gulf Arab states "are caught between the US-Iran conflict and have withstood most of the impact. If the ceasefire cannot be turned into a permanent agreement, they face the prospect of a new round of confrontation, and their image as stable regional safe havens will also be threatened."

Differences among the three, a shared bottom line: avoid a "second round"

Despite teaming up to pressure Trump, media citing insiders pointed out that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar still have differences regarding what kind of diplomatic agreement the US should pursue and what level of pressure should be kept on Iran.

Saudi supports mediation through Pakistan, believing that issues like Iran's nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles can only be solved through negotiations. Both Saudi and UAE believe the US should currently focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz for Iran while maintaining a maritime blockade on Iranian ports to exert pressure. Qatar continues to support mediation efforts led by Pakistan and consistently advocates for de-escalation for regional peace.

The UAE Foreign Ministry reiterated in a statement that any agreement must address Iran's "comprehensive threats," including nuclear capability, ballistic missiles, drones, and "subsidiary agents and terrorist organizations."

UAE presidential senior adviser Anwar Gargash said last Friday the chance of reaching an agreement with Iran is "fifty-fifty." "My concern is that Iran always over-negotiates. I hope they don't do it this time, because the region really needs a political solution. A second round of military confrontation would only complicate things further."

Some Gulf leaders are unsure if their appeals will be heeded and worry that Israel will persuade Trump to take military action against Iran again. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has already sent signals, believing it is necessary to further strike Iran’s military capabilities.

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