The United States "strikes" Venezuela, but the global crude oil market may remain "calm."

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Although, according to CCTV News, the geopolitical event of the U.S. raiding Venezuela and arresting Nicolás Maduro is highly impactful, early signals indicate that global crude oil markets will likely absorb this shock under the broader backdrop of global oil oversupply, making it difficult to change the overall loose supply-demand situation.

According to sources quoted by Bloomberg, although Caracas and other regions suffered a series of U.S. military strikes, Venezuela's key oil infrastructure was not damaged. The Jose port, Amuay refinery, and oil production areas in the Orinoco Belt are all still operating, which means that the risk of substantial supply disruption in the short term has been minimized.

In terms of market reaction, a weekend retail trading product operated by IG Group showed U.S. crude oil prices once rose by nearly $2 compared to Friday's closing price. However, since crude prices have recently fallen to around $60 per barrel, analysts generally expect Brent crude oil to rise only $1 to $2 at Sunday night’s open, or even less, with overall market sentiment remaining subdued.

According to CCTV News, President Trump stated clearly at a Saturday press conference that sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry will remain. He also claimed U.S. oil companies will assist in rebuilding local infrastructure and restoring output. Nevertheless, considering the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects record global oil oversupply in 2026, the marginal impact of this geopolitical development on the oil market has been significantly diluted.

Record Oversupply Cushions the Shock

According to IEA data, global oil supply in 2026 is expected to exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day, marking a historic record for oversupply. This massive redundancy provides a strong cushion for the market, allowing it to absorb turmoil from the Venezuelan situation.

A/S Global Risk Management’s chief analyst Arne Lohman Rasmussen assessed that even under normal circumstances, disruptions of this magnitude are manageable for the market. He noted that current forecasts point to severe oversupply in the first quarter, primarily driven by seasonal demand weakness and OPEC+ output increases.

Once a major oil producer, Venezuela’s output has shrunk dramatically. Despite claiming over 300 billion barrels of oil reserves, ranking first in the world, its daily production has fallen to about 1 million barrels, accounting for less than 1% of global supply. Recent U.S. pressure on Maduro’s regime, including seizing tankers carrying Venezuelan oil, has forced the country to shut down some wells, further weakening its influence on the international market.

Sanctions Persist Amid Logistical Disruption

Despite dramatic geopolitical changes, the existing sanctions framework remains severe. Bloomberg vessel tracking shows that recent tanker seizures in the Caribbean have alarmed operators of sanctioned ships, with at least seven vessels changing course or stopping at sea. Earlier, in mid-December, the U.S. military boarded the Skipper, prompting another four oil tankers to immediately change direction.

Despite heightened market volatility over the past month, U.S. oil producer Chevron continues to operate in Venezuela under a sanctions waiver from the Trump administration. Chevron said in a statement that it remains focused on employee safety and asset integrity while continuing to comply fully with all relevant laws and regulations.

Venezuela is also a member of OPEC. The organization and its allies, including Russia, are scheduled to meet on Sunday. Three delegates said earlier this week that they expect the virtual meeting to maintain the existing plan to pause production increases.

The Road to Recovery is Long

Maduro's arrest has sparked speculation about the long-term fate of Venezuela’s oil industry. Although Trump declared that U.S. companies will rebuild the sector and sell “large quantities” of oil to global buyers, such a reconstruction is highly ambitious and its prospects remain distant.

Most of Venezuela’s oil is ultra-heavy crude, which is extremely polluting and costly to process. The country’s oil fields are in poor condition, with deep-seated issues such as years of under-drilling, crumbling infrastructure, frequent power outages, and equipment theft.

Moreover, historical issues have cast a shadow over foreign investment. International giants such as Shell, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips suffered losses due to two rounds of nationalization, with ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips seeking compensation after their assets were seized by the late President Hugo Chávez. Apart from Chevron, Spain’s Repsol, Italy’s Eni, and France’s Maurel et Prom SA still operate joint ventures with Venezuela’s state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA.

Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, warned: “History shows that forced regime change rarely stabilizes oil supply quickly; Libya and Iraq are sobering examples.” It is still unclear which companies will lead the reconstruction Trump mentioned, or when production can truly be restored.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks; investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not account for any user's specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investments made accordingly are at their own risk. ```