The United States withdraws a ground force? Trump: The possibility of Kurdish armed forces participating in combat has been ruled out.

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Trump explicitly excludes the "Iranian Kurdish anti-government forces" from participating in the war, and raises the threshold for the US to deploy ground troops.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 7th aboard Air Force One, Trump stated that he does not want the conflict to become even more complicated: "This war is already complicated enough, there's no need to drag the Kurds into it."

Trump also said that deploying US ground troops to Iran would require "a very good reason," adding that Iranian forces must be severely weakened to the point of being "unable to fight". However, he showed clear interest in the idea of sending ground troops to control Iran's uranium enrichment facilities: "Maybe at some point, we'll do that."

Media analysis suggests that if Kurdish forces get involved in fighting Iran, it could trigger a wider regional chain reaction, and Kurdish leaders in Iraq are cautious about whether to join in. Iran and Turkey have also issued warnings regarding the risks of Kurdish separatism, making the controllability of the situation a key variable for the market's assessment of geopolitical risk.

Trump draws a line: Kurds not allowed to "join the game"

According to Bloomberg, Trump emphasized aboard Air Force One that he has "a very good relationship" with the Kurds, and they told him they are "willing to go in" to Iran, but he has made it clear that he does "not want them to go" in order to avoid making the conflict even more complicated.

This statement is in contrast to earlier reports. Previously, on March 5th, Xinhua News Agency cited Israeli media reporting that US senior officials revealed Kurdish forces stationed inside Iraq had launched a "ground offensive". The Iranian Kurdish anti-government forces in Iraq are believed to have thousands of soldiers.

Other reports show that the Israeli military has been trying to "open a path" for Kurdish forces to gain a foothold in northwestern Iran, with the ultimate goal of encouraging armed Kurds to oppose Tehran. Against this backdrop, Trump's exclusion statement effectively narrows the space for using the Kurds to pressure Iran.

The ground troop option is "postponed", but not completely ruled out

As speculation mounts over whether the US will further escalate military intervention, Trump said that deploying US ground troops to Iran would require "a very good reason," and that Iranian forces must be so weakened that they are "unable to fight".

But he also left some room for maneuver: when talking about the possibility of deploying ground troops to control Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, Trump said, "That would be a great thing," and "maybe at some point we will."

For investors, such statements mean that US policy paths remain split: on one hand, continuing to prioritize airstrikes and allied cooperation; on the other, opening up the possibility of ground operations driven by specific objectives. The uncertainty itself will continue to affect risk pricing.

The spillover risk of the Kurdish factor: regional warnings and power constraints

But involving Kurdish forces in fighting Iran could trigger more complex regional reactions. The report says, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated they had already attacked Kurdish groups in Iraq, and warned that separatist movements will not be tolerated.

Turkey has also stated that organizations promoting Kurdish separatism threaten regional stability and the territorial integrity of neighboring countries.

In terms of capabilities, the report cites Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, founding president of the Erbil-based Middle East Research Institute, who says that although some Kurdish factions are preparing for potential cross-border actions, these groups remain divided and lack the ability to directly challenge the Iranian state apparatus, though they may create "pressure points" on the border.

The media analysis points out that these groups currently lack the influence and resources needed to successfully launch an uprising. Meanwhile, Kurdish opposition groups are divided, with ideological and agenda differences.

In addition, Kurds have limited trust in the United States. Historically, Kurdish forces have often cooperated with the US, yet have repeatedly been "abandoned." CNN national security analyst Alex Plitsas warns: "If the uprising fails and the US withdraws, it will reinforce the narrative of the US abandoning the Kurds."

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