The US-Iran agreement does little to allay concerns, and global shipowners remain cautious about reopening the Hormuz route.

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Although the United States and Iran have reached a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, major global shipowners and ship management companies remain generally cautious, demanding clearer security guarantees before resuming normal navigation.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump said on social media on the 14th that with the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement on Friday the 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for mine clearance operations. On Monday the 15th, Trump stated on social media that ships have already begun to leave the Strait of Hormuz, many of them fully loaded with oil. While attending the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, he remarked that reopening the Strait of Hormuz “doesn’t require much (external) assistance.”

However, Monday's reports indicate that shipowners responsible for transporting oil and gas worldwide still have doubts about the actual operations of reopening. Many cite previous experiences of failed ceasefire agreements and choose to remain inactive.

Product tanker owner Hafnia stated that the situation is still evolving, and the reopening as mentioned in the agreement “must be supported by verified on-site security conditions,” emphasizing that only when they have sufficient confidence in the security environment will they resume relevant navigation.

Another shipowner, Torm, also stated that it would “cautiously assess the situation and restart relevant transportation only when conditions are both safe and responsible.” Jesper Kristensen, CEO of Synergy Marine Group which manages over 700 vessels, said the U.S.-Iran agreement is “encouraging, but whether stability and predictability can be maintained over the coming days is key.”

Agreement Details in Question, Industry Organizations Issue Warnings

According to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, under the agreement Iran will allow free passage for ships for 60 days, after which charges will begin for security, navigation, environmental, and insurance services, with future management of navigation services in the Strait jointly decided by Iran and Oman.

BIMCO, the world’s largest direct-membership trade organization for shipowners, warned that many key details in the U.S.-Iran agreement remain unclear and that navigation cannot be deemed safe until these issues are resolved.

BIMCO’s Chief Security Officer Jakob Larsen stated: “Both sides of the conflict need to provide credible guarantees for shipping to fully return to pre-conflict levels.” He also pointed out that suspected mine issues are critical, and given the large number of vessels stranded in the Gulf, departures must be carefully coordinated.

Fleet Management Limited, one of the world’s largest ship management companies under maritime group The Caravel Group, still has multiple batches of crew trapped in the Persian Gulf. CEO Angad Banga stated, “From the perspective of the bridge and engine room, the actual situation at present is very different from what the headlines suggest. Positive signals have been seen before, but ultimately what matters is whether all this can be sustained.”

Japanese Shipping Companies Respond First; Mitsui Says Close Coordination Needed with Government and Insurers

Among major shipping companies, Japanese firms were the first to respond to the agreement, though still with caution. Mitsui OSK Lines said that before sending ships through the strait again, close coordination was needed with government and insurance companies; NYK Line stated that normalization of shipping depends on the practical implementation of the agreement.

Anoop Singh, global shipping research director at Oil Brokerage Ltd, pointed out that shipowners from different countries have significantly different risk tolerances. Japanese and other East Asian shipowners are less accepting of high risks, while Greek shipowners have different risk appetites, so some may start preparing actively. However, overall, most market participants are still waiting for more details and safety guarantees before making decisions.

Within hours of the announcement, there was almost no change in ship movements within the strait, with only one LNG carrier, Disha, entering the eastern channel of the Strait of Hormuz headed toward the Gulf of Oman, seemingly testing the waters.

Hundreds of Ships Accumulated, Waiting to Depart

A large number of ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. According to Kpler senior crude analyst Muyu Xu, among the hundreds of ships waiting to cross the Persian Gulf, nearly 300 are fully loaded and ready for crossing; meanwhile, about the same number of empty ships are waiting on the other side in the Gulf of Oman to return to major export terminals, with around 250 ballasting within the Persian Gulf ready to take over outbound cargo.

Theoretically, even a temporary agreement could release millions of barrels of oil accumulated in the Persian Gulf over several months. But on the practical level, there are many obstacles—including the need to clean hull fouling, ensure crew are present, and unresolved security uncertainty.

Reports say an oil tanker owner pointed out that repositioning ships to the Middle East Gulf to wait for potential cargo still carries risks far greater than possible rewards, as the situation could reverse at any time. Other analysts noted that shipowners are unlikely to benefit from any “first-mover advantage”; they will only return to the Middle East Gulf once cargoes are genuinely available and freight rates are attractive enough.

Limited Passage Capacity and Remaining Mine Threats

Even if safety concerns are eased, the physical conditions of the strait will restrict the speed of recovery of ship passage efficiency. The narrowest point of the Strait of Hormuz is only about 39 kilometers, and each directional channel is only about 3.2 kilometers wide. If a large number of ships rush to pass, the risk of collision and grounding will rise significantly.

BIMCO, Intertanko, and the International Chamber of Shipping issued a joint guideline last month, warning: “During periods of extreme traffic congestion, collision and grounding risks may rise significantly,” and especially reminding shipowners “not to rely on AIS (Automatic Identification System)” because of ongoing electronic interference in the region that may distort position information.

Jakob Larsen also stressed that the mine threat in the region remains a major risk not to be ignored. A shipowner also told the media that the presence of mines will hinder ships entering and exiting the strait, posing extra risks.

Market Confidence Needs Repair; Recovery May Be Gradual

Many market participants expect that even if the situation stabilizes, the recovery will be gradual rather than an immediate rebound. According to Argus, a shipbroker pointed out that the Middle East Gulf remains the world’s largest oil producing region, and global energy demand will drive ships to gradually return to the area; but some analysts emphasize that shipowners who wait until the market warms up to enter may enjoy higher freight rates at that time.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly shrunk, far below the pre-war average of about 135 ships per day.

According to data by the UK Maritime Operations Organization (UKMO) up to June 11, since the outbreak of war, there have been 57 security incidents involving commercial ships in the Middle East Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. In the past few months, some oil and gas producers have used U.S. support or intergovernmental consultations to transit the strait covertly, but overall traffic remains very low.

Brett Erickson, Managing Director of Obsidian Risk Advisors, stated: “The shipping industry is very aware of these risks. The captains know, the crew knows. They understand that a single misjudgment, a single strike, or a political decision can turn the situation bad again, putting their lives back in danger.”

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