The US-Iran ceasefire agreement struggles to stop conflicts, oil prices rebound strongly, global stock market rebound is hindered, South Korean stocks lead the decline with a drop of 1.53%.

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement was questioned less than a day after its signing, halting the global multi-asset rebound triggered by easing tensions in the Middle East. Asia-Pacific stock markets generally declined, oil prices rebounded sharply, and investors were once again uncertain about whether the Strait of Hormuz would resume normal passage.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the afternoon of April 8, the Israeli military conducted simultaneous airstrikes on over 100 targets in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon within just 10 minutes. Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Thursday accused the US side of violating three terms of the ceasefire agreement, including denying Iran’s right to enrich uranium, Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, and drones entering Iranian airspace.

This statement led to a sharp downturn in market sentiment. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell 0.9%, with two declining stocks for every one rising stock in the index. US and European stock index futures both dropped 0.2%, signaling a possible end to the global stock market’s four-day rally.

Brent crude oil futures surged 2.7% to about $97 per barrel, rebounding strongly from the largest single-day drop in over six years. The Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed. According to Xinhua, The Wall Street Journal cited data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, reporting that only four ships were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the 8th after the ceasefire announcement. US Treasury yields stabilized after erasing early gains, and Japanese and Australian government bonds retreated, as markets worried that rising oil prices could further exacerbate inflationary pressures.

KOSPI led the declines, dropping 1.53%, and the small-cap KOSDAQ Index fell 1.38%. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.77%, and the TOPIX dropped 0.78%.India's Nifty 50 Index fell 0.3%; the Reserve Bank of India previously warned of inflation risks and threats to economic growth due to the Iran war. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index was essentially flat.US and European stock index futures both dropped 0.2%, signaling a possible end to the four-day rally in global markets.The US 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.29%.Japan's 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to 2.395%.Brent crude oil futures surged 2.7%, to about $97 per barrel, rebounding strongly from the largest single-day drop in over six years.The US dollar index rose 0.1%.Bitcoin fell 0.5% to about $71,000.Gold fluctuated widely around $4,700 per ounce.

Ceasefire Agreement in Dispute, Statements from Multiple Sides Increase Uncertainty

The fragility of the ceasefire agreement was tested on the very day it was signed. Under the framework of this agreement, Trump announced a two-week halt to strikes against Iran in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, using a 10-point plan as the basis for negotiations. Israel reportedly agreed to join the ceasefire as well.

However, according to a Wallstreetcn article, less than 24 hours after the ceasefire announcement, Israel launched its largest airstrike against Lebanon, resulting in thousands of casualties. Meanwhile, Trump’s stances on key issues such as the negotiation framework and whether Lebanon was included in the ceasefire were inconsistent, and the White House said it had "thrown Iran’s 10-point plan into the trash." Iran then temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the US must choose between the ceasefire and "continuing war through Israel." From the outset, the ceasefire was fragile and chaotic.

Rabobank cross-asset macro strategist Molly Schwartz noted:

"The problem with ceasefire agreements is that they often require both sides to reach consensus on a series of terms and genuinely stop fighting. However, if the terms are not comprehensively established, neither side can be held accountable for halting hostilities, and the so-called 'ceasefire' loses its meaning."

Strait of Hormuz Obstructed, Energy Flows Become Key Variable

Whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen remains the core concern for traders.

On Wednesday, despite the ceasefire agreement’s announcement, shipowners were still waiting to see if passage would be safe, and the strait remained largely closed. Bloomberg-tracked ship data showed only three vessels left the region that day.

Peter Dragicevich, Asia-Pacific currency strategist at Corpay Solutions in Sydney, wrote in a report: "The fragility of the ceasefire agreement has been tested, as Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. The situation in the Middle East has somewhat improved, but conditions remain volatile, and considering the instability among parties involved, developments could worsen at any time."

Bloomberg market strategist Garfield Reynolds also pointed out that Israel is intensifying attacks on Lebanon, and Iran has reportedly threatened a strong response. This means the negotiations scheduled to start Friday are unlikely to achieve significant progress.

Broad Decline in Asia-Pacific Stock Markets, Tech Stocks Under Pressure

Major Asia-Pacific markets declined to varying degrees. KOSPI led the declines, dropping 1.53%, and the small-cap KOSDAQ Index fell 1.38%. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.77%, and the TOPIX dropped 0.78%. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned Thursday that cross-market volatility’s impact on interest rates cannot be ignored, stating "the transmission speed of rate rises from other markets may far exceed expectations," according to Reuters.

India's Nifty 50 Index fell 0.3%; the Reserve Bank of India previously warned of inflation risks and threats to economic growth due to the Iran war. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index was essentially flat.

Asian tech stocks followed US peers lower. Previously, Meta Platforms launched a new AI model and Anthropic released its Claude tool for building intelligent agents, putting pressure on the technology sector overall.

Other Asset Performance and Market Outlook

Among other assets, Bloomberg’s dollar index rose 0.1%, bitcoin fell 0.5% to about $71,000, and gold fluctuated widely around $4,700 per ounce.

Wednesday’s sharp rebound set the stage for this round of adjustments. After Trump announced a halt to strikes against Iran, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,325.46 points in a single day, a gain of 2.85%—the largest one-day gain since Trump first softened his tariff stance in April 2025; the S&P 500 rose 2.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.80%. The Asia-Pacific index saw its biggest daily gain in a year.

Templeton Global Investments portfolio manager Yiping Liao said: "A lot will depend on the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the progress of negotiations. It will not be easy to return to the pre-conflict state. This may mark the bottom of further escalation, but risks remain elevated."

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