The US tariff refund system goes online today. Can consumers get their money?

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On Monday, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officially opened its tariff refund application portal, allowing importers to apply for refunds on Trump-era tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional. However, whether this refund, amounting to possibly hundreds of billions of dollars, will actually return to consumers’ pockets is a question much more complex than the system going live.

According to the CBP notice, the portal opened at 8 a.m. on Monday, allowing importers and their brokers to submit claims via the online system. As of April 14, 56,497 importers had registered, with a total refundable amount (including interest) of approximately $127 billion. CBP stated that refunds will be issued within 60 to 90 days after approval and will be processed in phases, with priority given to more recent tariff payments.

The core of the problem is: Tariffs are paid by importers, but the costs are often passed on to consumers via price increases. Refunds will be sent directly to corporate accounts, and companies are under no legal obligation to return this money to consumers. This means that for ordinary consumers who paid more in the past, it is highly unlikely they will get their money back under the current mechanism.

Costs have been passed to consumers, refunds will not return the same way

This is the structural issue most worth attention in the entire refund mechanism. Tariffs are paid by importers, but many companies have already passed on these costs to consumers through price hikes—so consumers actually bore the tax burden but are not included on the refund list.

The system launched Monday will send refunds directly to the taxpaying companies, which legally have no obligation to return the funds to consumers.

Currently, multiple class action lawsuits are proceeding in the U.S. judiciary, with plaintiffs seeking to force companies like Costco and Ray-Ban’s parent Essilor Luxottica to refund consumers, but outcomes are still uncertain.

In contrast, the best chance for ordinary consumers to get a refund may come from courier companies like FedEx and UPS — who charged consumers tariffs directly in cross-border shipments.

FedEx has stated that upon receiving CBP refunds, it will return them to relevant customers, and plans to start submitting applications on April 20. “Supporting customers through regulatory changes is always our top priority,” FedEx said in a statement.

Analysts pointed out that for the vast majority of consumers who have silently borne higher prices through retail channels, these funds are unlikely to ever return to them.

Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional, refund procedures follow

On February 20 of this year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled by a 6-3 majority that Trump’s move last April—using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to declare a "national emergency" due to trade deficits and impose tariffs on almost all trade partners—was an overreach and infringed on Congress’s taxing authority.

The majority opinion of the Supreme Court did not address the refund issue directly, but the U.S. Court of International Trade later ruled that companies affected by IEEPA tariffs are entitled to refunds. CBP data show that over 330,000 importers paid about $166 billion in tariffs on more than 53 million shipments.

However, not all payment records are eligible in the first round of refunds. The system’s first phase will only handle tariff claims that have not completed final verification, or are within the 80-day window for final verification.

The system's launch does not mean refunds are at your fingertips. Meghann Supino, a partner at the law firm Ice Miller, advised clients to list all document numbers submitted to CBP carefully as any ineligible record may cause the entire batch claim to be rejected.

"If any entry in the documents is not eligible, it could lead to the whole claim being denied, or that line item being rejected by Customs," she said. She also expected that technical glitches may occur on the first day, "As with any highly-anticipated system going live, there may be some bumps in the road on Monday."

Nghi Huynh, partner in transfer pricing at the consulting firm Armanino, pointed out that most applicant companies import mixed goods, not all of which are eligible. "Each file may contain thousands of entries, but accuracy is key—incorrect formats or data will be rejected."

For small and medium-sized enterprises, this refund system comes late and works slowly. Brad Jackson, co-founder of the Rochester, Minnesota cigar brand After Action Cigars, said that once CBP announced the portal’s launch date, he immediately began organizing records and preparing to enter information.

The company imports cigars and accessories from Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, paid $34,000 in tariffs last year, and chose to absorb most of the costs instead of raising prices to retain customers.

"My biggest concern is turnaround time," Jackson said, "A refund process taking months can’t really solve the cash flow problem it’s meant to resolve." He also noted that last spring, a missing document delayed his goods for two weeks, making him extra cautious this time.

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