The war is changing too quickly, information can't keep up, and traders are all confused.

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Middle Eastern energy infrastructure has been hit with intensive strikes, plunging the market into an information vacuum. Oil and gas prices are experiencing wild fluctuations as traders struggle to piece together loss estimates amid the fog of war, only to find every calculation outdated overnight.

On Thursday, the global oil benchmark Brent crude soared 10% at one point, briefly reaching $119 per barrel before retreating. European natural gas prices jumped about 12% in a single day. The catalyst for this surge was Iran's missile attacks against Saudi Arabia, Kuwait's refineries, and Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas plant.

Unlike blocked tankers, damaged energy infrastructure can take months or even years to rebuild, with some capacity losses potentially permanent. This means that even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes smoothly, the amount of exportable energy may have already shrunk considerably. The duration of supply disruptions and inflationary pressure will far exceed previous expectations.

The market had assumed the situation would calm, but it keeps escalating, escalating, and escalating again. The uncertainty of the conflict itself has become the most persistent driver of energy prices.

A pricing nightmare in an information vacuum

In the fog of war, accurate data is extremely scarce, and the pace of battlefield developments has outpaced the market's ability to absorb information.

"If you sit down every night with paper and pen to calculate which facilities have been hit and which have halted production, by the time you wake up the next day, your calculations are already outdated," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at London oil brokerage PVM. "It’s a nightmare."

According to a Thursday report by the Wall Street Journal, wartime controls have delayed satellite images, and widespread signal jamming in the Middle East has placed the ship-tracking industry in a semi-blind state. To obtain reliable information, commodity traders are hiring security consultants with local resources in the Gulf, and deploying their own tanker fleets to monitor port activities. Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx, a London oil brokerage, said he recently hired a researcher with extensive shipping industry connections to primarily track rumors of attacks, logistical interruptions, and naval escorts. "We thought the situation would calm down, but it just keeps escalating, escalating, and escalating again," he said.

This information vacuum directly pushes up the risk premium and creates abnormally violent price swings. One core issue traders face is determining whether Ras Laffan has entered "cold shutdown"—where the refrigeration system is still running—or "hot shutdown," the latter of which would greatly extend the recovery period.

Uncertainty as energy’s most persistent driver

For now, the only thing the market can be certain of is this: uncertainty itself has become the most persistent driver of energy prices.

Specifically, Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant was the most severely damaged target in this round of attacks. As the world’s largest liquefied natural gas production base, it accounts for about one-fifth of global LNG supply.

"The long repair period means the global LNG supply will remain tight for several months ahead," said Henning Gloystein, Managing Director of Energy at Eurasia Group. "And, unless you are certain there will be no further attacks, it is simply impossible to start repairs on such infrastructure.

Besides Ras Laffan, another target of strategic significance in this round of Iranian strikes was the Samref refinery at Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast.

Yanbu port has long been considered Saudi Arabia’s key ‘safety valve’ for oil exports—via the East-West pipeline, the kingdom can bypass the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz and ship crude to the Red Sea. This strike sends a warning to the market: Iran may have deemed this critical bypass route—including the pipeline itself and the port—a legitimate target. "The situation is becoming truly destructive," said Greg Newman.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ special investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinion, viewpoint, or conclusion in this article fits their specific circumstances. If you invest based on this, responsibility is your own. ```