The weight-loss battle has a "clear winner," as Eli Lilly nears becoming the "first $1 trillion pharmaceutical company."

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In the fiercely contested and highly profitable weight-loss drug market, the balance is tipping decisively, with Eli Lilly moving closer to becoming the first trillion-dollar pharmaceutical company.

According to a Wall Street Journal analysis on November 18, the weight-loss drug boom is about to give rise to a trillion-dollar company—Eli Lilly. Thanks to its overwhelming advantage in GLP-1 drugs, Eli Lilly is quickly widening the gap with its competitors.

The latest market developments show that Eli Lilly has taken a decisive lead in this competition. Although its weight-loss drug Zepbound only hit the market at the end of 2023, with increased production capacity and new clinical data, it has successfully surpassed Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and now holds the vast majority of new obesity drug prescriptions.

This shift is clearly reflected in market valuation. Since March 2024, Eli Lilly’s market value has soared from over $700 billion to about $970 billion, while Novo Nordisk, with a market value of over $500 billion at the time, has now dropped to about $200 billion.

Eli Lilly's growth story may just be beginning. A recent agreement with the Trump administration, where the company exchanged price reductions for broader federal Medicare and potential Medicaid coverage, could bring approximately 40 million new patients for its weight-loss drugs, tremendously expanding its market base.

The key bottleneck to growth is being broken

Previously, supply shortages restricted the growth of both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. But reports indicate both companies have now resolved their capacity issues. More importantly, Eli Lilly is preparing to launch an oral version of its weight-loss drug.

Citi healthcare strategist Traver Davis pointed out that unlike the supply and insurance coverage disparities with injectables, oral medications are easier to mass-produce and cost less, entering a mature market that is “structurally ready to accept them.”

Eli Lilly’s global expansion also seems to be only at the beginning stage. Data show that overseas revenue from Lilly’s drug Mounjaro (which has the same ingredient as Zepbound) soared from $728 million in the third quarter last year to $2.97 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Notably, about 75% of these sales came from out-of-pocket payments by obesity patients.

This suggests that as access improves and insurance reimbursement increases in markets like Brazil and Europe, the global opportunity for GLP-1 drugs may prove to be the “real sleeping giant” in the Eli Lilly story.

High Valuation and Patent Risks

However, if Eli Lilly’s market capitalization soon surpasses $1 trillion, debates about its valuation will intensify. Currently, the company’s stock trades at around 34 times forward earnings, higher than Nvidia or Microsoft (around 30 times), and well above the pharmaceutical industry average of about 16 times.

Nevertheless, according to FactSet forecasts, annual sales of Eli Lilly’s two flagship drugs are expected to exceed $40 billion by 2026, and approach $60 billion before 2030, which could support its high valuation.

The greatest long-term risk lies in patents. Unlike tech companies that can infinitely iterate their products, any blockbuster drug faces the “laws of physics” of patent expiry. Citi’s Davis bluntly states: “This will be the largest patent cliff in history.” At that time, competition from companies like Amgen and Pfizer will also intensify.

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