This is not science fiction! By 2030, the cost of space data centers will match that of ground-based ones.

Delivering high-energy-consuming AI computing power into orbit is moving from theoretical discussion to the stage of economically viable verification.

According to news from Wind-Chasing Trading Desk, Deutsche Bank stated in a January 14 report that although the current cost of space deployment is high, this gap is shrinking at an astonishing speed. Analysts predict that with the plunge in launch costs and satellite design optimization, the cost of building a space data center will be comparable to ground construction within the next decade. This means that the energy and cooling bottlenecks that plague terrestrial data centers may find the ultimate solution in space.

Rapid Closing of the Cost Gap

Deutsche Bank’s model shows that deploying computing power in space is still an expensive gamble, but the tipping point is now in sight.

According to their estimates, building a 1 gigawatt (GW) capacity space data center currently costs at least seven times more than on the ground. However, this multiple will quickly shrink to four times in the latter part of this decade, and eventually achieve cost parity in the 2030s. The report points out:

This cost decline is mainly driven by the reduction in launch costs as well as further optimization in satellite design and energy efficiency, which will lead to a significant reduction in the mass required for orbital deployment.

Data shows that under the 2026 forecast scenario, the cost of space deployment is as high as $114 billion, while ground deployment is only $16 billion—a difference of 7.2 times. But under the “2032 optimized scenario,” space deployment costs will plummet to $18 billion, almost matching the ground cost of $16 billion with a mere 1.2 times difference.

Plunging Launch Costs Are Key

The core variable in achieving this economic reversal is the cliff-like drop in launch costs. The model assumes that the per-kilogram launch cost will drop from $1600 in 2026 all the way down to $67 in 2032.

Deutsche Bank emphasizes the importance of full rocket reusability and operational scaling in their report:

We assume that the current market price for launches to low Earth orbit (LEO) is about $70 million or $4000 per kilogram. Over time, with full rocket reuse and scaled operations, this cost could drop significantly to $10 million, or even under $70 per kilogram.

Extreme Optimization of Hardware Specs

Aside from launches, hardware evolution in orbit has also been radical.

Deutsche Bank expects that by the 2030s, the cost per satellite will fall below $2 million (or just $10,000 per kW). This optimized version will be equipped with a 150kW power system (including solar arrays and thermal management), and carry 150 custom chips designed specifically for space-based AI infrastructure, interconnected via optical laser terminals.

It is worth noting that the model is not without blind spots. Deutsche Bank admits that its comparison baseline is based on the assumption that ground capacity costs remain unchanged. At the same time, the model mainly compares the deployment costs of power, cooling, and weight infrastructure and does not include the expensive procurement of GPU/TPU chips. The report cautions:

If ground-based power generation becomes rapidly inexpensive (for example, nuclear energy), this assumption may no longer be realistic.

This alerts investors that the logic of space data centers depends not only on advances in space technology, but also on whether or not ground energy transformation stagnates.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The above content is from Wind-Chasing Trading Desk.

For a more detailed analysis, including real-time and frontline research, please join [Wind-Chasing Trading Desk ▪ Annual Membership]

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular situation. Investment based on this is at one's own risk.