This may be the most expensive and most closely watched IPO next year: OpenAI and Anthropic.

The IPO race between AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic is becoming the focus of attention in the capital markets, with both companies exploring the possibility of going public.

The latest development in this race, according to a recent report from the Financial Times, is that Anthropic, the developer behind the AI model Claude, has taken concrete preliminary steps by hiring law firm Wilson Sonsini to prepare for an IPO that could become one of the largest in history.

This move is interpreted by the market as a potential acceleration signal for AI giants to make their public debut, with the IPO possibly happening as early as next year. Whether OpenAI or Anthropic goes public first, it will be a key test of the public market’s willingness to pay for loss-making but fast-growing AI startups, setting the tone for other high-valued private tech companies’ IPO decisions.

Reportedly, adding weight to this high-stakes race, Anthropic is also negotiating a new round of private financing, with its valuation possibly surpassing a staggering $300 billion. This figure highlights the sector’s huge appetite for capital and suggests its IPO could be the “most expensive” yet.

Capital Needs Drive IPO Pace

Unlike other tech giants such as Stripe and SpaceX, which have delayed their IPOs, AI companies may have stronger motivation to go public.

The core driving force lies in their capital-intensive business model. Developing and training advanced AI models requires massive computing power and ongoing R&D expenditure, and an IPO can open doors to individual investors and more public funds, providing broader financing channels than the private market.

Currently, the bullish market sentiment around AI concepts also creates a favorable window for IPOs. Lise Buyer, partner and founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group, commented on the entire AI industry: “It’s obvious they are growing quickly, and it’s obvious they need incremental funding.”

She added that discussing potential IPOs or other exit strategies helps companies in later-stage financing, because “people want a return on their money.”

IPO Timetable: Next Year or Later?

Although Anthropic has taken the first step, its exact IPO timetable remains unknown. According to the Financial Times, its IPO “could happen as early as next year.”

However, some industry watchers are more cautious. They speculate that the IPOs of these AI giants may not happen until 2027 or later, viewing the hiring of law firms as a very early step in the IPO process, with several years likely before their actual market debut.

Dual Challenge: Massive Fundraising and Complex Equity

Once these AI giants decide to go public, they will likely seek to raise massive amounts of capital, but this itself comes with challenges. Lise Buyer points out that if too much new stock is injected into the market, “then you face the question of where the follow-on demand will come from.” Balancing financing needs with market capacity will be a key issue to resolve.

Another complexity is their equity structure. Since the implementation of the JOBS Act in 2012, private companies with over 500 shareholders are no longer compelled to go public. This has led to many large private companies having thousands of shareholders, many of whom acquired shares via secondary market transactions.

Although this eases the urgency for companies to go public, it also means that once an IPO happens, many shareholders will want to sell shares. Companies need to carefully manage lock-up agreements, and Lise Buyer believes “for these giant companies, the legal details of getting all the lock-up agreements signed are much more complex.”

Market Barometer: Testing Investor Enthusiasm

No matter who crosses the line first, an IPO by OpenAI or Anthropic will be seen as a key barometer for the whole tech industry. For years, investors have been waiting for the IPOs of “super unicorns” like Stripe, SpaceX, and Databricks, but most have remained mere speculation.

Therefore, an IPO in AI will be the first major trial of the public market’s assessment of the real value of a new generation of tech giants. These AI startups are currently still operating at a loss, making this test even more benchmark-significant. Their performance will directly affect investor confidence in the entire AI track and provide an important market reference for other tech companies waiting to go public.

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