This time, there is unlikely to be a "buying frenzy"! The key interest rate in the insurance sector has been lowered, expected to shift from "speculative buying before discontinued sales" to "investing in dividends".
In past years, whenever there were signs of key interest rates being lowered for insurance products, the market would quickly enter a "window period rush buying" state.
Notifications about discontinuation, time-limited notices, and "last chance" messages would frequently surface, leading to a clear short-term surge in sales—"rushing to buy before sales stop" almost became a routine scenario.
But this time, things seem to be different.
On January 20, the latest round of industry interest rate research results was released, and there were no noticeable emotional fluctuations in the insurance community—no large-scale rush buying prompts and no amplified "urgent narratives." The market reaction was relatively calm. The whole insurance sector seemed more willing to focus on major product lines at the beginning of the year, including participating (dividend) products, high-end personal insurance, and investment-linked insurance.
What signal does this interest rate change deliver this time? And why hasn’t it triggered the familiar "rush buying wave"?
Understanding these details may be more important than simply focusing on numerical changes.
Slight Decline in Assumed Interest Rate
On January 20, 2026, the China Insurance Association convened the Expert Advisory Committee for Life Insurance Industry Interest Rate Research for the fourth quarter 2025 regular meeting.
The meeting discussed the assumed interest rates for life insurance products, resulting in the latest research determination: the current study value for ordinary life insurance products’ assumed interest rate is 1.89%.
Numerically, this research value is down by 1 basis point (bps, one ten-thousandth) from the previous value of 1.90%, representing a slight year-on-year decline.
But zooming out, this change is not isolated. Since the research value of 2.34% in January 2025, in the past year, the research value for the assumed interest rate has been lowered four times, currently at a historical low.
Favorable for Deepening Transformation in Life Insurance Sector
At this expert advisory committee meeting, in addition to making decisions, experts systematically expressed views on macro and sectoral backgrounds, which can serve as references.
Experts believe that in 2025, China’s economy will maintain resilience while facing pressure, with new productive forces steadily developing, and the level of livelihood and social security continuously improving. Against this background, the life insurance industry deepens transformation and innovation, focuses on key areas such as health and pensions, and continually improves service quality and efficiency through structural optimization and technological empowerment.
The Interest Rate Research Expert Advisory Committee has continuously optimized its working mechanism over the past year, linking assumed interest rates to market rates and dynamically adjusting mechanisms, which have been smoothly implemented. This mechanism has played a clear role in promoting industry cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, advancing marketization, and strengthening risk management capabilities.
Where Does the "Pricing Coordinate" Come From?
The so-called "assumed interest rate study value for life insurance products" is not the interest rate directly used to sell insurance products to consumers, but rather a key reference coordinate used for industry pricing and regulatory judgment.
China's life insurance product pricing employs a mechanism linking assumed interest rates to market rates and dynamically adjusting. According to relevant documents, this means "referring to long-term rates such as the 5-year and above Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the 5-year fixed deposit benchmark rate, and the 10-year government bond yield to determine the benchmark assumed interest rate."
The assumed interest rate is the internal rate of return target set by insurance companies for long-term policies (such as incrementally increasing whole life insurance and annuity insurance), used for calculating premiums and future returns. A decline in the assumed interest rate will noticeably affect long-term return levels for policyholders.
The study value of the assumed interest rate, periodically published by the China Insurance Association after leading expert research, essentially serves as the "pricing coordinate" for insurance products.
It May Be Difficult to See Another Assumed Interest Rate Adjustment Window in 2026
From a regulatory standpoint, only when the deviation between the study value and the highest assumed interest rate for currently marketed ordinary life insurance products consistently reaches a certain threshold, can a new round of adjustment be triggered.
Sell-side research offers more specific calculations.
The team at Zhongtai Securities led by Ge Yuxiang points out that, if market rates remain unchanged, it may be difficult to see another assumed interest rate adjustment window in 2026.
The latest assumed interest rate study value (from the fourth quarter 2025 meeting referenced above) is 1.89%, only 11bps lower than the current highest assumed interest rate for ordinary life insurance products on the market at 2.0%. This does not meet the previously agreed regulatory threshold of "25bps or more for two consecutive quarters."
The team further estimates that if the government bond yield curve, 5-year fixed deposit rate, and 5-year LPR remain at current levels, the simulated study value of the assumed interest rate by end-2026 would be about 2.00%, matching the current highest rate for marketed ordinary life insurance products.
In essence, the analyst’s viewpoint can be "translated" to: If there are no significant changes in market interest rates ahead, it’s highly likely that 2026 will not see a concentrated price adjustment for insurance products.
The Trend of "Hyping Sales Suspension" in the Insurance Sector Is Gone
Looking back, from 2023 to 2025, regulators have guided the industry to lower the assumed interest rate ceiling for three consecutive years.
Previously, as a result of various combined forces, "hyping sales suspension" (炒停售) was once popular within the sector.
This term, commonly used in the insurance industry, refers to insurance organizations and sales channels amplifying messages like "old products are about to be discontinued," "lock in the high interest rate window," etc. prior to a regulator-confirmed or anticipated drop in the assumed interest rate ceiling for life insurance products, thus driving short-term concentrated sales and, in some cases, "anxious marketing."
During previous cycles of assumed interest rate reductions, once consensus formed in the market that "interest rates are about to be lowered," some products would be packaged as "the last batch of high-rate products," leading to a rapid spike in sales over a short period. However, such concentrated marketing at the sales level would expand sales volume in the short term while deepening some consumers’ misunderstanding of interest rate changes, potentially affecting the rationality of their asset allocation decisions.
But from a regulatory perspective, in recent years market guidance has encouraged a rational view of interest rate reduction, suppressing temporary behavior that disturbs the operating pace and liability costs for the sector, and promoting the return of life insurance products to the logic of long-term protection and prudent pricing. This appears to be reflected in the latest adjustment.
Moreover, the data for this round reveals that the 0.01% change can be almost ignored; considering that relevant interest rates are already very low and unlikely to decline substantially afterwards, the market stimulus is weak.
Thus, with various changes working together, industry institutions are gradually giving up on such marketing activities, shifting to promote dividend-type products and linked products that guide long-term market investment directions. This is a "natural" process.
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