This weekend, the US and Iran are busy "changing conditions," while Israel is busy attacking Lebanon.

Negotiations didn’t reach an agreement, the battlefield didn’t see a ceasefire — this weekend, both fronts in the Middle East are tense. US-Iran ceasefire talks have entered the most stalemated stage. Both sides spent the entire weekend exchanging revised proposals, but according to media reports, it remains unclear whether substantial progress has been made. Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, Israel announced the expansion of military operations in Lebanon, breaking the already fragile ceasefire. According to Xinhua, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said in an interview broadcast on Iranian media on the night of May 31: "Current discussions about progress in negotiations with the US are all speculation, and no judgment should be made on the process before a clear result is reached." Araghchi stated that dialogue and information exchanges between Iran and the US are ongoing. Most of the circulating claims are guesses, “before things are finally settled, too much importance shouldn't be attached to them.” The market reacted swiftly. Early Monday, Brent crude oil prices soared to about $93/barrel — after falling to the lowest point since mid-April last Friday; WTI crude rose by 2.5%, quoted at $89.51/barrel; the US dollar strengthened across all G10 currencies. Drafts shuttle back and forth, where are negotiations stuck? The core logic of these negotiations is not complicated: both the US and Iran are trying to reach an agreement to exchange the cessation of military actions for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But the devil is in the details. According to reports, last Friday Trump reviewed the draft agreement finalized by negotiators with Iran during a meeting in the White House intelligence room and demanded the revision of several clauses, with the main concerns focused on two points: first, the specific arrangements for Iran’s enriched uranium, including how the US will acquire the relevant nuclear materials and the timeline; second, the wording regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to CCTV News, several US officials disclosed that Trump has significantly revised and tightened the terms of the memorandum of understanding, and the revised version has already been sent to Iran for review. A White House official stated Trump “will only sign an agreement that benefits the US, meets his red lines, and ensures Iran can never possess nuclear weapons.” Iran is also active. According to Iranian state TV on Saturday, the new draft includes a clause where Iran has “exclusive decision-making power” over the nature of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz — a provision that the US side is almost certain to reject. The draft also mentions that the US promises to transfer $12 billion in frozen funds directly to Iranian banks within 60 days, with no attached conditions. But Iranian state TV emphasized the document is an “informal” draft and not “final”. The White House has not commented. Currently, the negotiations rely on intermediaries, including Pakistan, to relay information. Earlier, a senior government official revealed Iranian negotiators are “in caves, not using email,” and there is considerable delay in information transmission. Getting the revised text delivered to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei himself is a major challenge. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi remained calm in his interview on May 31, according to Xinhua: “Dialogue and information exchange with America are ongoing. Before things are finalized, too much importance shouldn’t be attached.” Semi-official Tasnim News Agency, which is closely linked to Iran, pointed out the worst-case scenario on Sunday: both sides may eventually reject each other's amendments, causing the deal to collapse. Why is Trump eager to negotiate? Treasury Secretary Bassenthus stated in a Fox News program on Sunday: “This is the first time in 47 years that Iranians are willing to discuss not possessing nuclear weapons. It’s President Trump who put this issue on the table for negotiations.” Trump’s former National Security Adviser John Bolton gave another interpretation on Bloomberg, directly revealing the political logic behind the negotiations: "This deal is, at its core, about the price of gasoline at US gas stations," Bolton said. “Trump is clearly worried about how much people are paying, about the impact on inflation, about the impact on the November election. But it's not a deal that truly ends the war in a way that satisfies the US.” Israeli Prime Minister says he has ordered Israeli forces to expand operations in Lebanon While US-Iran negotiations are deadlocked, Israel’s military operations in Lebanon are accelerating. According to CCTV News, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said on May 31 local time that he has instructed Israeli troops to expand military operations in Lebanon. After crossing the Litani River in southern Lebanon, Israeli forces continued pushing north, attempting to occupy key high points and encircle Nabatieh. The report says Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced earlier Sunday that Israeli troops have raised Israel’s flag at the historic Beaufort Castle. The military said Hezbollah fired over 300 projectiles at Israel’s forces in Lebanon and northern Israel over the weekend, marking Israel's largest-scale operation against Lebanon in 25 years. French President Macron condemned Israel’s latest actions on social media and called for a ceasefire: “There is no justification for the major escalation currently taking place in southern Lebanon.” It is noteworthy that Israel is not a party to the US-Iran negotiations. Even if an agreement is reached, whether Israel would halt its military operations in Lebanon remains unknown. US troops attacked in Kuwait, drones destroyed Tensions are escalating elsewhere. According to media citing a source with direct knowledge, Iran recently fired ballistic missiles at a US military base in Kuwait. The missiles were intercepted, but shrapnel caused around 5 injuries, including contractors and active military personnel. The attack also severely damaged two MQ-9 "Reaper" drones—one destroyed, one critically damaged, each valued at about $30 million. US Central Command did not respond to requests for comment. At the same time, US Navy fired “Hellfire” missiles at a Gambian-flagged ship bound for an Iranian port on Friday, hitting its engine room and crippling it. US Central Command stated on social media the ship failed to stop after more than 20 warnings. How does the market see it? The market had previously digested expectations of a US-Iran agreement — US stocks closed at historic highs last week, oil prices fell from their peaks to April lows, causing a breath of relief in the global bond market. But this weekend's news disrupted the rhythm. Kyle Rodda, Senior Analyst at Capital.com, said: “US-Iran negotiations remain an unresolved concern and a source of potential future volatility. The risk is that market pricing may be misled by the Trump administration’s ‘deal nearly reached’ narrative, but so far, Iran remains cautious.” Patrik Lang, Chief Investment Strategist at Geneva-based Global Gate Asset Management, is relatively optimistic: “There could still be more setbacks, but the market has already priced in expectations for the Iran deal. Once announced, I don’t expect large market moves, except for a possible drop in oil prices.” Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular situation. 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