This year, the number of layoffs in the United States has reached the highest level since 2009, breaking the perception of a job market characterized by "neither hiring nor firing."

This year, the number of layoffs in the United States has reached the highest level since 2009, breaking the perception of a job market characterized by "neither hiring nor firing."

UBS warns that the so-called "low hiring, low layoffs" narrative in the U.S. job market is collapsing. As of October, the total number of layoffs in the U.S. this year has hit a record high since 2009.

According to Chasewind Trading Desk, UBS analysts stated in a November 6 report that the latest Challenger layoff data shows that seasonally adjusted layoff announcements in October reached 192,000, a sharp increase of 126,000 month-on-month.

Even more noteworthy, after excluding government and non-profit institutions (to avoid “DOGE” political noise), private sector layoffs surged to 157,000—setting the highest level since July 2020, and the highest October figure on record. In just one month, the technology sector added 25,000 new layoffs, while the warehousing and logistics industry surged by 46,000. AI-related layoffs jumped suddenly from zero in September to 31,000 in October.

As of October, cumulative layoffs for 2025 reached 760,000 – not only higher than the 601,000 for the same period in 2024, but also the highest on record for any given year since 2009.

Analysts bluntly pointed out:

"Although the market broadly accepts the narrative of 'low hiring, low layoffs,' initial unemployment claims, WARN notices, and layoff announcements have in fact remained above pre-pandemic levels."

The average monthly layoffs over the past six months stand at 85,000—far exceeding the typical range of 30,000 to 50,000 between 2014 and 2019. Amazon announced a cut of 14,000 corporate employees, UPS reduced its workforce by 48,000 in a year, and Target eliminated 1,800 corporate positions. Each action may be viewed as a separate case, but together they signal a clear, systemic tightening.

Holiday Hiring Remains Weak

The data on recruitment is also nothing to be optimistic about.

Seasonally adjusted total hiring plans in September and October were 400,000—far below the average of 625,000 between 2014 and 2019, and lower than 625,000 in 2023 and 670,000 in 2024. This year, Amazon is sticking to its plan to hire 250,000 seasonal workers—which appears unchanged from the past two years, but signals caution against a backdrop of weakening demand. Target this year did not even disclose the number of seasonal positions.

UBS warns that for investors betting on a "soft landing" for the U.S., cracks in the job market are widening. When layoff numbers continually reach 15-year highs, while the market remains focused on minor fluctuations in non-farm payrolls, true risks may already be brewing under the surface.

 

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The above content is from Chasewind Trading Desk.

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