Three consecutive declines! SpaceX is just "one step away" from breaking its IPO price, and shareholder lock-up expiration is approaching.

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Just weeks after SpaceX’s IPO, its stock price is already on the verge of danger. After three consecutive days of decline, the share price of this rocket and satellite company owned by Elon Musk is just a step away from its IPO issue price, and confidence in the largest IPO in history is facing a severe test.

SpaceX’s stock dropped 2.2% on Tuesday, closing at $136.08 per share, only $1 higher than last month’s IPO issue price of $135. Since its post-IPO peak, the stock has plummeted by about one third, with nearly $850 billion in market value evaporated.

For a newly listed company, breaking below its IPO price is not only a numerical setback, but also a direct blow to the carefully crafted market narrative by the company and its underwriters. Early post-IPO losses for shareholders can spell lasting trouble for some new stocks. Meanwhile, insider stock lockup windows are about to open, and supply pressure will continue to build up in the market.

Three consecutive drops push the stock price close to the issue price

SpaceX completed its IPO on Nasdaq on June 12, closing the first day at $160.95—the largest fundraising in US IPO history. However, the stock continued to come under pressure, and after three consecutive days of decline, it has fallen below the first-day closing price, approaching the critical level of the issue price at $135.

Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, stated, “We still believe SpaceX has not yet bottomed. There will be continuous stock supply entering the market in the coming months, so we need to closely monitor whether demand can absorb it at that time.”

Bloomberg data shows that, excluding SPACs, the overall weighted average return rate of US IPOs in 2026 has dropped to 5.3%, with SpaceX being one of the main drags. The group’s overall return rate is about half of the S&P 500 index’s performance in the same period.

High valuation and lockup pressure pose dual concerns

Market worries about SpaceX arise not only from the short-term stock price movement but also from the dual pressures of its valuation level and stock supply.

From a valuation perspective, SpaceX’s current expected price-to-sales ratio exceeds 30, ranking among the top in Nasdaq 100 index components, just slightly below Palantir Technologies Inc. Skeptics believe that this level cannot provide enough margin of safety for the stock price.

Meanwhile, the company faces relatively long lockup arrangements, with insider shares set to be released in batches over the coming months and gradually flowing into the market. Ken Mahoney pointed out that the ongoing supply release will pressure the stock price, especially when demand remains unclear.

Wall Street analysts remain bullish, but the market votes with its feet

Despite the continued decline in share price, Wall Street analysts’ overall stance is still bullish. According to Bloomberg data, more than a dozen investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs, started coverage with buy ratings. Over 80% of analysts currently recommend buying, with an average target price of $236.25—more than 70% above Tuesday’s closing price.

However, the divergence between market performance and analyst expectations reflects investors’ caution toward highly valued IPO stocks. Bloomberg’s analysis of 30 major tech IPOs in the past 15 years shows an average maximum first-year drop of 55%, indicating that sharp price swings after new listings are fairly common.

SpaceX is not the only major IPO this year to drop below its first-day closing price. Bloomberg data shows that among the ten largest IPOs this year, six have fallen below their debut closing prices. This record-breaking IPO year is accompanied by widespread volatility.

Breaking below IPO price may trigger bargain hunting; some investors are waiting

Falling near the issue price may also present a turning point. For investors who missed out on the IPO subscription, the area near $135 could be seen as an attractive entry point.

Talley Leger, Chief Market Strategist at Wealth Consulting Group, said he chose to wait during the IPO phase, anticipating that SpaceX would soon be included in the Nasdaq index—his firm holds funds tracking the index. “If the decline continues, I may consider buying some shares, as I agree with the company’s vision and goals,” Leger said.

SpaceX was just added to the Nasdaq 100 index last week under the fast-track rule. Investors and underwriters will closely watch SpaceX and Korean chip maker SK Hynix Inc.’s US depositary receipts' performance in the coming weeks, as both completed record-breaking listings within the past month.

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