"Three days left for the ceasefire," Israeli military strikes Lebanon, Iranian military closes the Strait of Hormuz, Trump convenes another "war room meeting."

Only three days remain in the US-Iran two-week ceasefire, and cracks are appearing on multiple fronts.

On April 18, less than twenty-four hours after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, its military announced the strait’s closure again. On the same day, Israel launched attacks in southern Lebanon, and Trump urgently convened a White House situation room meeting.

According to media reports, a senior US official warned that if there is no breakthrough in the short term, the war may resume within days. Just a day before, Trump had said an agreement could be reached "within a day or two".

Strait of Hormuz: Opened and Closed Again within 24 Hours

According to CCTV International News, on the evening of the 18th local time, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy announced that due to the US violation of the ceasefire agreement and failure to lift its blockade of Iranian ships and ports, the Strait of Hormuz would close immediately and remain shut until the US blockade is lifted.

The Revolutionary Guard warned all ships in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman not to leave their berths, and any action approaching the strait "will be deemed as cooperating with the enemy, and violating ships will become targets." The statement further said, "The US president’s remarks about the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf have absolutely no credibility."

Just one day earlier, Iran had announced the reopening of the strait for commercial ships following designated routes. Trump quickly posted his "thanks," but then changed course, stating "the maritime blockade of Iran remains effective."

Iran immediately accused the US of "maritime piracy." Iranian presidential spokesperson Tabatabaei stated on the 18th: "Due to repeated violations of trust and exploiting this major concession for propaganda, the strait is closed again."

After the closure, chaos erupted onsite.

According to media reports, the British navy said a tanker near Omani coast was approached and fired upon by Revolutionary Guard speedboats, but the crew are safe; another container ship was hit by an unidentified projectile, damaging several containers. Multiple tankers trying to pass through the strait turned back that day. However, some ships still attempted to capitalize on the previous day’s open window—a super tanker, FPMC C Lord, loaded with Qatari and Saudi crude oil crossed south of Iran's Larak Island heading to UAE, and several LNG and oil product ships headed for the strait as well.

Media analysis suggests that this reversal may expose divisions between Iran’s military hardliners and the diplomatic system—diplomats show goodwill, the military swiftly overturns it, reflecting the complexity and difficulty of negotiations.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated in a National Army Day statement that "the Navy is ready to let the enemy taste new failures at any time"; First Vice President Aref said Iran controls the strait and will "defend its rights at the negotiating table or on the battlefield."

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transport corridors. Before the US/Israel-Iran war broke out, about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG passed through it.

Trump Convenes Situation Room Meeting, US Military Prepares to Board and Seize Iranian Ships

Media reports say Trump convened an emergency meeting in the White House situation room on the morning of the 18th to discuss the strait crisis and negotiations with Iran. Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Defense Secretary Hegses, Treasury Secretary Besent, White House Chief of Staff Wells, envoy Witkoff, CIA Director Ratcliffe, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Kane were all present. Vance is expected to join the next round of Iran negotiations.

Military pressure is simultaneously escalating. According to Xinhua citing The Wall Street Journal, the US military plans in the coming days to board and seize Iran-associated tankers and merchant ships operating in international waters, expanding operations beyond the Middle East.

According to Xinhua, Trump told reporters that the US is in dialogue with Iran. "They want to close the strait again, but Iran cannot threaten us. There will be news by the end of today." In previous interviews he said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, and that "most major clauses" have been finalized. But he also issued a threat: if the ceasefire expires, bombing may resume.

"Maybe I won’t extend the ceasefire, then the blockade continues, and unfortunately we have to start throwing bombs again."

Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Broken, Hezbollah Issues Warning

The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement has shown obvious cracks just one day after taking effect.

According to CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces claimed on the 18th that over the past 24 hours, they have eliminated multiple Hezbollah members south of the "Yellow Line" in southern Lebanon, citing that these individuals violated the ceasefire agreement and posed an "immediate threat." The IDF used artillery to support ground operations, destroying some Hezbollah infrastructure, and emphasized that self-defense operations are "not restricted by the ceasefire agreement."

French President Macron confirmed on the same day that a French soldier with the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon was killed in an attack, and implied Hezbollah was responsible. According to Xinhua, Hezbollah leader Qassem issued a statement, saying they will respond to any violation of the ceasefire and stressed that it must be honored by both sides. The Lebanese military had previously recorded several Israeli attacks, and some villages continue to come under sporadic shelling.

This Lebanon-Israel ceasefire was announced by Trump on April 16 for a ten-day period. There is linkage between the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz—cracks appearing on both lines have quickly cooled previously rising peace prospects.

Negotiation Window Shrinks, Core Differences Unresolved

Despite the worsening situation, negotiations continue.

According to Xinhua, Pakistan’s Army Chief Munir traveled to Tehran this week to mediate, and the US has proposed new suggestions. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it is reviewing them and has yet to respond. Media reports say Trump has spoken at least once with Munir and the Iranian side.

Media analysis says that exactly when the two sides’ differences over uranium enrichment were narrowing, the strait situation suddenly reversed. Enriched uranium is the core bargaining chip in negotiations. This material was reportedly deeply buried after Iran’s nuclear facilities were bombed in last year’s "Twelve-Day War" by US and Israel, and ownership is key to any agreement. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagheri was tough on the issue:

"Enriched uranium is as sacred as Iranian territory, and under no circumstances will it be transferred anywhere."

Media reports say one of the current proposals is for the US to release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran handing over its enriched uranium stockpile, but Trump repeatedly said "no" to this.

The market has already priced in peace expectations. Brent crude plummeted 9% to about $90/barrel last Friday, erasing most of the gains since the war broke out; spot benchmark dated Brent fell below $100 for the first time since March 11, and the stock market continued rebounding in the same period. But Bloomberg’s economic research analysts poured cold water on optimism in a report:

"Although the agreement seems imminent, it is unlikely to bring comprehensive or lasting peace. We assess any agreement will be limited and fragile."

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