Top AI conference survey: "Which startup would you short?" Perplexity ranks first, OpenAI ranks second.

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At an industry summit gathering heavyweight figures from the field of artificial intelligence, an informal survey revealed growing doubts within Silicon Valley about the current AI boom.

Although capital continues to pour into the AI sector at an unprecedented rate, insiders are starting to show unease over the astronomical valuations of some leading startups, with AI search challenger Perplexity and industry giant OpenAI being considered the most likely "failed" bets by the most respondents.

The summit, named “Cerebral Valley,” was held in San Francisco and concluded on Wednesday with a special live poll. The organizer of the event, independent journalist Eric Newcomer, posed a rather “offensive” question by Silicon Valley standards to over 300 founders and investors present: Which AI startup with a valuation over $1 billion would you short?

The survey results showed that Perplexity, an AI search startup challenging Google, ranked first. Even more surprisingly, OpenAI, widely recognized as the biggest winner of the current AI revolution, was a close second. This directly reflects emerging cracks in market confidence regarding the business models and valuation sustainability of industry leaders, despite the surface-level fervor for AI investment.

While any non-scientific anonymous poll should be treated cautiously, the signals it reveals cannot be ignored. In Silicon Valley culture, where public negativity towards startups is generally taboo, this rare “callout” highlights a consensus spreading among investors: We are currently in an AI bubble.

Perplexity: Poster Child of Valuation Frenzy and "Bubble"

For those closely following Silicon Valley trends, it isn’t entirely surprising that Perplexity topped this “short” list. The company has become a typical example of the AI bubble in the eyes of some.

According to a recent Business Insider report, Perplexity has been raising funds at an astonishing pace, launching a new round every few months and attracting eager investor demand, with its valuation soaring from $14 billion all the way up to $50 billion. This rapid increase has made it the “poster child” for bubble theory.

When asked about the Cerebral Valley summit poll results, Perplexity spokesperson Jesse Dwyer responded via email: “Wow, this sounds more like a valley summit for the opinionated.”

OpenAI: Risks Hidden Behind High Valuation and Huge Spending

In contrast, OpenAI ranking second may come as a bigger surprise, as it is widely seen as the clear winner in the AI space. However, its ever-expanding valuation and commitment to massive infrastructure spending have started to worry some investors.

Reportedly, OpenAI’s infrastructure spending plans, estimated at trillions of dollars, have sparked concerns about its financial sustainability. In a recent interview with investor Brad Gerstner, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was asked directly: “How can a company with $13 billion in annual revenue commit to $1.4 trillion in spending?”

Faced with accusations that his company's valuation was exaggerated, Altman strongly countered and gave Gerstner a concise, confident reply: “If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer. That’s it.” Notably, OpenAI did not respond to requests for comment regarding the summit poll results.

The Other Side of the Coin: Bets and Divide Coexist

Although there is a rising bearish sentiment, that’s not the whole story. In another poll about “which company you would bet on,” Perplexity and OpenAI also appeared prominently, indicating huge divergence in market expectations for their futures. High risk and high return coexist—this is the true depiction of today’s AI investment landscape.

Topping the “bullish” list is Anthropic. According to Business Insider, this company is currently exploring a new round of funding that could push its valuation to as high as $350 billion.

At this summit, there was an almost undisputed consensus: We are indeed in an AI bubble. But many seasoned investors consider this not necessarily a bad thing.

Ilya Fushman, partner at KPCB, said on stage: “I think every tech cycle, by definition, is a bubble. The real question is, which companies will survive and how big can they eventually become?”

Independent investor Elad Gil, speaking in the same panel, likened the current scenario to the late 1990s internet bubble. He predicted: “Eventually, dozens of companies will become enormous, a few will truly change the era, and all the others will disappear in some form.” For investors, their value lies in precisely predicting which company—like Perplexity—will become the next Google, or the next Altavista lost to history.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users' unique investment goals, financial situations, or requirements. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article suit their own circumstances. Those investing based on this information do so at their own risk. ```