Trade War Turns into Cultural War: Trump Threatens 100% Tariff on Foreign Productions, Hollywood Stunned

US President Trump has again threatened to extend trade protectionist policies to the cultural industry. If implemented, this policy would challenge Hollywood’s globalized business model.

According to CCTV News, on Monday, September 29 local time, Trump posted on the social media platform "Truth Social," stating that America's film production industry "has been stolen from the US by other countries," just "like stealing candy from a baby." Trump said the governor of California is "weak and incompetent," and the state has suffered especially badly. To address this "long-term and never-ending" problem, he would impose a 100% tariff on all films produced outside the United States.

The market reacted in different ways to this threat. In early trading on Monday, AMC Theatres (AMC) surged by more than 6.2%, Disney (DIS) rose nearly 1.2%, Netflix (NFLX) dropped 1.9% early on but later gained, while Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) fell 2.1% at one point.

Analysts believe that Trump’s untested policy faces many difficulties in execution. Investors doubt Trump's legal authority and the means to implement the tariff. The White House did not immediately respond to related inquiries.

Media have pointed out that industry executives have previously felt "confused" about how such tariffs would be implemented, as modern filmmaking often involves multinational collaborations, with production, financing, post-production, and visual effects spread across several countries.

Reiterating May’s Threat, Policy Details Remain Vague

This is Trump’s first threat to impose a 100% movie tariff in nearly five months. Like before, Trump did not clarify the specific timing or method of implementation, nor which legal authority would be used to impose this tariff on a service rather than a physical good.

CCTV News noted that on May 4 local time, Trump previously posted on social media stating he would instruct the US Commerce Department and US Trade Representative to immediately begin procedures to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films entering the US. This move already sparked worries among American film industry insiders and experts at the time.

In his post on social media this Monday, Trump singled out California, calling the state’s governor "weak and incompetent," and saying the state was hit especially hard. He had previously accused other countries of offering tax incentives to lure production companies to film overseas.

The White House did not respond to requests from the media for comment on how the tariffs would be implemented. Top US studios such as Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Global, and Netflix also did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Comcast declined to comment.

Industry Questions Tariff Feasibility

Hollywood is now increasingly reliant on overseas production centers such as Canada, the UK, and Australia, where tax incentives attract big-budget productions from superhero blockbusters to streaming series. Features co-produced with foreign studios are becoming more common, especially in Asia and Europe, with local partners providing financing, market access, and distribution networks.

Entertainment industry executives are skeptical of the feasibility of Trump’s movie tariff policy.

Jay Sures, deputy chairman of leading Hollywood talent agency United Talent Agency (UTA), commented to the media previously: "American actors and directors usually prefer to work closer to home. But the reality is, it’s cheaper for Hollywood studios to pay everyone’s airfare and hotel since labor costs, lack of rebates, and the ability to produce overseas all make it much less expensive."

An industry insider told the media in May: "At first glance, it’s shocking and almost means a complete stop to production. But in reality, he doesn’t have the jurisdiction to do this, and it’s too complex to implement."

PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore stated: "There are too many uncertainties, and this latest move raises more questions than answers. As of now, costs may go up, and this would ultimately be passed on to consumers."

US Film Industry Faces Multiple Challenges

The US film industry is facing the challenge of declining box office revenue. Since the pandemic, the number of major films released in theaters has dropped significantly, and consumer movie habits have shifted to streaming platforms and watching at home.

US box office revenue reached a peak of nearly $12 billion in 2018, but with many theaters closed during the pandemic in 2020, box office revenue plunged to just $2 billion. Although theaters have reopened since, the number of films released is only about half of 2019's, and domestic box office revenue has not surpassed $9 billion since then.

Since the beginning of this year, Warner Bros. Discovery’s global box office revenue has reached $4 billion, becoming the first studio to hit this milestone.

Trump Threatens Furniture Tariffs

Besides movie tariffs, the Trump administration is preparing to implement a series of other tariff measures. Last Thursday, Trump announced a round of tariffs to be imposed next month on social media.

According to CCTV, on September 25 local time, Trump announced on his social media that starting October 1, the US will apply a new round of high tariffs on various imported products. The measures include: a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related building materials; a 30% tariff on imported furniture; and a 100% tariff on patented and branded medications.

This Monday, Trump again said on social media that he would impose high tariffs on "all countries that do not produce furniture in the United States." Media hinted that these tariffs could be difficult to implement because furniture is produced by companies rather than countries, and tariffs are imposed on specific imported products, not on national governments.

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