Trading on Iran conflict? Trump’s statements are contradictory before and after—be careful not to get played!

```

Investors attempting to profit from the Iran conflict are engaging in a "blind gamble." Contradictory signals continue to disturb the market, causing heavy losses for short-term traders, while long-term investors find themselves relatively more comfortable.

Trump's statements about the Iran situation this week were nearly self-contradictory—he demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," claimed the war would "end soon," and then quickly added "not this week."

Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy was protecting oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and that global oil supplies would soon resume, only to quietly delete the post later. It turned out the information was inaccurate.

This series of contradictory statements has triggered severe turmoil in the financial markets. The U.S. Oil Fund (USO), which tracks global oil prices, saw swings of up to 20% in just two days, while the Russell 2000 index (RUT), tracking U.S. small-cap stocks, moved 5% over the same period.

Investors who bought stocks after Trump claimed the war would "end soon," and investors who sold energy stocks after Wright's erroneous message, both experienced direct losses.

Contradictory signals create market chaos

This week, U.S. government officials made statements about the Iran conflict filled with internal contradictions. Trump demanded "unconditional surrender," which outsiders generally believed would require a full military invasion; yet he also said the conflict would "end soon," before denying any result would come this week.

Some senior government officials claimed joint U.S.-Israel operations had basically achieved their goals, but at the same time hinted that bombing intensity would soon increase.

Chris Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy was securing oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz and global oil would soon flow freely—this triggered market turmoil, but he soon deleted the post. This information was confirmed to be false.

The market consequences of this chaos are clear: the USO fund swung violently within a 20% range over two days, and the Russell 2000 index fluctuated 5% over the same period. Short-term traders who bought on positive news or sold on false messages all paid a real price.

Energy stocks show signs of overvaluation

The Iran conflict has indeed boosted the performance of energy stocks. The SPDR Select Energy Sector ETF (XLE), which tracks major energy companies, has risen 26% since the start of the year, but this gain benefits those who already held positions, not new buyers coming in now.

According to FactSet data, energy stocks are now looking expensive. For example, XLE’s rolling dividend yield is only 2.7%, its lowest since October 2018.

Furthermore, the energy sector faces cyclical constraints: Even if the conflict keeps oil prices high, high oil prices essentially act as a tax on consumers, which may slow economic growth or even trigger a recession, ultimately suppressing energy prices.

As is often said in the commodities industry, "high prices are the cure for high prices."

Long-term investors need not engage in short-term speculation

MarketWatch, under Dow Jones, believes that for long-term investors not planning to trade the Iran conflict short-term, the current situation is relatively favorable.

A basic investment principle is this: the longer your time frame, the more predictable the outcome. No one can predict the direction of global markets in a day, a week, a month, or even a year; but over a decade or more, markets are overwhelmingly likely to be significantly higher than they are today.

As Warren Buffett has repeatedly said, the stock market is a mechanism for transferring money from "the active" to "the patient." There is no compelling reason to trade this conflict, but there is every reason to remain disciplined about it.

Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer ClauseMarkets are risky, invest prudently. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider the particular investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their own situation. Investing based on this information is at your own risk. ```