Trump always makes moves on weekends, so Wall Street no longer dares to hold positions over the weekend.

Trump always makes moves on weekends, so Wall Street no longer dares to hold positions over the weekend.

Trump habitually releases major news over the weekend, forcing Wall Street to readjust.

Last Saturday, Trump announced that Iranmust reach an agreement within 48 hoursor it would face a series of devastating attacks on public utilities and other infrastructure.However, by Monday, Trump canceled these plans, stating he would pause strikes on energy facilities for five days. After the news was released, Brent crude oil on Monday fell by over 14% at one point.

(Brent crude oil futures plunged 14% at one point on Monday)

Then on Thursday, after the US stock market closed, Trump announced that the deadline would be extended to April 6. That day, spot crude oil gains quickly turned negative, risk assets rebounded, but the market appeared increasingly "immune" to Trump's verbal interventions, and asset prices soon reverted to their intraday trend direction.

On Friday, Wallstreetcn reported that after the situation escalated further, US oil recovered all weekly losses, while US stocks plummeted, the Dow fell over 10% from this year’s high, following the Nasdaq into correction territory.

Trump’s series of actions during market closures have substantially impacted trading behavior. Traders in stocks, fixed income, and commodity markets are now generally unwilling to hold large positions before the weekend, to avoid severe volatility that might occur at Monday’s opening.

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab, said this week:

Entering the weekend with any sizable positions could make for a very tough Monday morning.

Weekend Moves Have Become Routine

Summing up Trump’s behavior over the past period, he prefers to take major actions on Saturdays.

Last June’s airstrike against Iran, the forced control of Venezuelan President Maduro this year, and the latest military action against Iran all happened on Saturday or during the weekend, when major markets—including forex—are closed.

White House spokesman Kush Desai denied in an email statement any connection between the timing of military actions and market closures. He said:

It’s absurd to think that these military actions are timed based on stock market closures rather than intelligence advice and the timing most conducive to mission success. Only someone who’s never even organized a kid’s birthday party would believe that.

According to unnamed White House officials, the coincidence of so many major moments falling on the weekend is purely accidental.

But Trump is accustomed to dramatic action, and prefers to operateoutside of market trading hours, which has already reshaped the interaction pattern between Wall Street and Washington.

As the reality of Hormuz Strait closure becomes increasingly imminent, his ability to soothe markets with optimistic remarks is waning. Even Trump’s announcementto pause military action for 10 dayscan't guarantee that this promise will be sustained.

Market Pressure Index Hits New High Since Trump’s Presidency

An analytical framework developed by Deutsche Bank strategists shows Trump tends to make the most impactful decisions at moments of maximum market stress.

The bank’s “Pressure Index” weighs performance of the S&P 500, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and Trump’s approval rating.

Data indicates the index spiked when Trump announced delays to “reciprocal tariffs” last spring, clarified last summer he did not intend to fire Fed Chairman Powell, and earlier this year when he said he would not use force to seize Greenland.

Currently, the index has risen to its highest level since Trump took office in January 2025.

Meanwhile, evidence shows that Trump’s weekend moves do have a significant impact at Monday’s opening.

Taking the EUR/USD currency pair and S&P 500 index as examples, both have seen the frequency of large opening gaps between Monday and Friday’s close rise sharply, leaving investors with little time to quickly unwind loss positions.

Escalation Risks Should Not Be Underestimated

Nevertheless, what the pause in action means remains inconclusive in the markets.

Wolfe Research analyst Tobin Marcus dubbed Trump’s latest move “Schrödinger’s Taco” in a Monday research note, warning that as Trump sends more Marine forces to the region, the possibility of seizing Iran’s key oil export hub Kharg Island is rising and the risk of escalation remains high.

Marcus wrote:

When this force arrives, Trump will face a choice: back down, escalate, or muddle through. We believe this decision won’t be easy, but investors must take escalation risks seriously.

Trump continues to sendambiguous signalsabout Middle East tensions. Former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told the media:

This may just be a delaying tactic until our military is in place,but if that’s the case, the US will face a prolonged siege, and the President won’t be able to manipulate the market every Saturday and Monday morning.

Atlantic Council International Economics chair Josh Lipsky takes a more cautious approach. He said:

I think the markets, and all of us, should expect greater weekend volatility going forward.

But Josh Lipsky also cautioned against over-interpreting any patterns in this behavior.

Risk Disclosure and DisclaimerMarket risk is real, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein suit their particular circumstances. If you invest based on this, you do so at your own risk.